Great Britain
The last cartridge: tax cuts should save Sunak
Criticism of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been growing within the Conservative Party for weeks. photo
© Jessica Taylor/UK Parliament/AP/dpa
Months before the general election in Great Britain, Prime Minister Sunak is handing out the first election gifts. But will cuts in social security, for example, be enough to catch up in the polls and calm his party?
“Danger increases courage,” wrote Shakespeare. months before Parliamentary election, the poet’s quote seems to fit the British Prime Minister exactly. “These are dangerous times for Rishi Sunak,” said political analyst Mark Garnett. Because the problems of the conservative head of government are immense: up to 30 points behind in the polls, defeat in court and an increasingly clear crack in his Conservative Party.
In what was probably his last attempt to turn things around, Sunak had his finance minister Jeremy Hunt announce the first tax cuts in years.
For many commentators, this seems like the courage of desperation. “Let’s be honest: tax cuts are about the least Sunak can do to win over a demoralized party and angry voters,” commented Politico. Garnett also emphasized that lower taxes were the only remaining glue for the Tory party. According to experts, the fact that, among other things, the social security contribution rate is now to be reduced is, above all, an early election gift worth billions.
Just a few weeks ago, Finance Minister Hunt had ruled out tax cuts. Now he promises a lot of support for the economy – and the industry association CBI has praised him for this. But retailers reacted with disappointment, and the opposition Labor party emphasized that the tax burden for consumers was still higher than in the previous election in 2019. For the right wing of the Tory, the steps did not go far enough. Ultimately, only a portion of what the government previously took away will be returned, wrote conservative economist Julian Jessop.
There is a threat of a historic election debacle
The exact date of the parliamentary election has not yet been set, but it is expected to take place in 2024. In all polls, Sunak’s Tories are almost hopelessly behind Labor’s Social Democrats. A historic debacle is looming. The “Autumn Budget for Growth”, which his Chancellor of the Exchequer announced in Parliament in London, is likely to be Sunak’s last patron. Recently there have been several failed restarts, Scarlett Maguire from the polling company JL Partners told the Telegraph newspaper.
Sunak’s self-promotion at the Tory party meeting as a “candidate of change”? After 13 years of conservative government, it was quickly exposed as untrustworthy. His legislative proposals from the pompous “King’s Speech”? Barely offered any new impetus. The cabinet reshuffle with the surprise return of former Prime Minister David Cameron as Foreign Secretary? Provoked rather astonished questions as to whether Sunak did not trust any Tory MP to hold the important post.
The conservatives lack a clear sense of the direction in which they want to steer and what they want to stand for, said Maguire. Sunak’s zigzag course is not helping. At first he seemed to be getting closer and closer to the ultra-conservative Interior Minister Suella Braverman. When Braverman went too far in her criticism and Sunak had to throw her out, he opted for much more moderate politicians with the returnee Cameron and former Foreign Secretary James Cleverly as the new Home Secretary.
Frustrated Tories not in line
Criticism of the head of government has been growing within the Conservative Party for weeks. The cracks in the party are enormous. The fired Interior Minister Braverman took aim at Sunak in an incendiary letter, and parts of the right wing are barely concealing their agitation against the Prime Minister. But there is also a risk of revolt from the moderates if Sunak actually abandons international human rights agreements in order to implement his controversial migration policy.
Many Tories are frustrated and fear for their seats. “The whole party has the impression of little children when they are well past their bedtime: very tired and grumpy,” one lawmaker told Politico. Expert Garnett from Lancaster University emphasized in an interview with the German Press Agency: “Under these circumstances, Sunak’s best protection against internal critics is that they cannot afford to change their leader a third time within a legislative period.”
Observers scoff that the only thing that could help is one of the measures announced by Finance Minister Hunt: that the alcohol tax will remain frozen until August and not increase again. After all, this situation can only be a good place to drink.