German Trade Association
Retail expects only a mini-upturn in 2024
Passers-by with shopping bags: Every second retailer expects that sales in 2024 will be worse than in the previous year. photo
© Daniel Bockwoldt/dpa
Companies are looking back on a difficult year. The trade association hopes for better sales in 2024. However, a survey of retailers is not very optimistic.
The HDE forecasts total sales of 671.8 billion euros this year. In nominal terms, that would be an increase in sales of 3.5 percent compared to 2022. In real terms, i.e. adjusted for prices, this would only correspond to an increase of one percent.
“The current year will most likely be better for the retail sector than the last. Even if the losses in purchasing power of the last two years cannot be compensated for, this is at least a positive signal for the industry,” said HDE President Alexander von Preen.
Consumption is expected to grow only moderately
The trade association expects a slight overall economic recovery in 2024, but also persistently high price levels. Consumption is therefore expected to grow only moderately. The causes are a clouded mood and uncertainty among companies and consumers as well as a continued high savings rate.
An HDE survey of 850 retail companies in Germany is not very optimistic: 33 percent rate their business situation as poor, 50 percent as satisfactory and only 16 percent as good. Every second retailer expects sales in 2024 to be worse than in the previous year, while only one in five believes sales will be better.
Last year was disappointing for retail in Germany. According to figures from the Federal Statistical Office, in nominal terms the companies recorded an increase of 2.3 percent compared to 2022. In real terms, i.e. adjusted for price increases, they had 3.3 percent less in their coffers than in the previous year. Christmas business was also disappointing. Real sales were 1.7 percent below the previous year’s level.