Status: 03/03/2022 3:48 p.m
German industry expects exports to suffer because of the war in Ukraine. Several effects have a negative impact. But there could be a beneficiary.
The Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) has withdrawn its export forecast because of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. The previous outlook of six percent growth this year can no longer be maintained, said DIHK foreign trade chief Volker Treier, without making a new forecast.
German economy supports the sanctions
Already before the war there were worldwide supply problems and bottlenecks, which have now been intensified. In addition, the Western sanctions against Russia also burdened German companies. The sanctions would be tantamount to a “full embargo,” said Treier. “The financial sanctions are working”, the German economy supports them without criticism.
According to Treier, a total of around 40,000 German companies have business relationships with Russia, and 3,650 are even active there with branches. According to Treier, however, the bulging order books will be of no use if the problems in the supply chains are not resolved soon. Around 250,000 full-time jobs depend directly on exports to Russia. Last year, exports there totaled 26.6 billion euros. “This year there won’t be any more,” says Treier.
Auto industry particularly affected
In addition to the direct effects of the sanctions, there are also indirect ones caused by the war in Ukraine. The combat operations are slowing down vehicle production in Germany, among other things, due to a lack of parts. The main focus here is on cable harnesses, for which western Ukraine has developed into an important production location. Further delays in delivery are to be expected here, said Alexander Markus, head of the German-Ukrainian Chamber of Industry and Commerce.
In the past week, when the war was already going on, some companies were still producing, said Markus. He suspects that there are fewer and fewer companies. “As a rule, they then shut down production and freeze their companies. Then there’s only the security guards who protect the companies.”
Does China benefit?
In addition, according to the DIHK, the trade barriers that arose in the corona pandemic are solidifying: “That is even more than in 2020 with its numerous corona lockdowns and at the same time the highest value that we have measured in the past ten years,” said Treier . Deliveries from China would have to be switched more to the sea route, which would increase the already expensive freight rates even more, said Treier.
It is exciting whether China will fill the gap that is now emerging. The People’s Republic is Russia’s most important trading partner. There will probably be an intensification here. “China will determine the prices,” because Russia is in dire straits.