Excitement in Wolfsburg – are up to 30,000 jobs at risk? Herbert Diess had once again warned against Tesla last week: “We have to accept this competition,” insisted the Volkswagen Group boss in a conference with 200 executives. The headquarters in Wolfsburg must also become more efficient and faster, according to Diess. “I know some of you hate that,” the German press agency quotes him, “but first and foremost it’s Tesla. The gap is growing. They are getting faster. They are delivering. They are getting better at building cars. They have a fully networked network Fleet around the world. And they are the only brand that is growing despite Covid. “
Diess’s words sound like a cry for help. Who would have thought this possible from one of the world’s largest automakers just a few years ago? Socket instead of gas pump, there’s no getting around it, that’s for sure. Software and networking are also part of the coordinate system of a new era – and one of Tesla’s strengths. Take the shortage of chips, for example: While Deutschland AG continues to build antiquated semiconductors into its old combustion platforms, Tesla has switched to more powerful new goods within months – which are preferably manufactured in the chip factories (for mobile computers).
Tesla hardly suffers from the lack of chips and solves many problems with software
While the electronics revolution is still a dream of the future for many customers, it has long determined the day-to-day work of developers. Even the once self-confident German brands are clearly struggling to catch up with Tesla. They will have to serve the old combustion engine and the new electric world at the same time for years to come. That eats up time and money.
Even if fuel prices continue to rise, it is difficult to estimate the willingness of many drivers to switch. The holey charging infrastructure, the meager range and the high prices of electric cars (before subsidies) are not exactly conducive to acceptance. Not only BMW is practicing the huge balancing act: Under the collective term “New Class”, the Munich-based company is developing a new electrical construction kit that also fits hydrogen vehicles. At the same time, the white-blue brand is once again giving full throttle in the old car world and revising the entire engine range. In order to be able to meet the much stricter EU7 emissions standard (2025), pre-heating must be carried out again during a cold start. Special heating catalytic converters consume a lot of electricity during the heating phase, but the new gasoline engines with pre-chamber injection and double ignition emit significantly fewer pollutants.
Although the next generation of plug-in hybrids shines with electric ranges of 100 kilometers and more, a subsidy stop could seal their premature end. Remain the pure Stromer: Hyundai and Kia have doubled the operating voltage in the compact class to 800 volts, which ideally halves the charging times. Many others will follow. Speaking of halving: Chinese newcomers like Great Wall Motors were able to reduce the development time for new e-models to 2.5 years compared to the European competition. And Volvo parent Geely distributes its standard electrical architecture over half a dozen brands. Ten years ago, the Chinese were little more than strangers with little profile.
For its part, Tesla keeps the audience happy with new software magic tricks. After Audi, BMW and Mercedes recently analyzed the 1100 hp plaid version of the Model S in detail, perplexity spread. The charging and discharging algorithms and the balance between performance and range were as difficult to understand for the German experts as the battery management of the Toyota Prius was once. First insight: Tesla creates many functions that the German premium trio can only display with a high level of software and hardware expenditure through the clever integration of inexpensive components from the supplier pool.
The new electric platforms from BMW and Mercedes are also suitable for combustion engines
Even the German premium brands are too slow, too weak to make decisions and too often still trapped in outdated processes. So the model range is first cut to save costs. Emotional products such as coupés and convertibles fall through the number grid, low-profit compact cars are put to the test. Would you like some examples? Audi wants to phase out A1 and Q2 due to insufficient profitability, BMW will merge 4 and 8 series in the next generation as purely electric adventure cars. And when you think about entry-level electrification in Munich or Stuttgart, the Mini and Smart sub-brands automatically come into play. Those who will stream from China to Europe in the future.
In the German and European car factories, the workers hope for a turning point in the year 2025. Then the New Class from BMW will start, Audi wants to prepare for autonomous driving with the Artemis project (A8 successor) and Mercedes will bring the fully electric C-Class and the next-generation A-Class.
All of the models mentioned are on completely new electric platforms. The internal combustion engines no longer make the difference, and there is still no clear technology leader in batteries. The (800-volt) drives deliver power and torque in abundance, but are hardly suitable as a brand-defining distinguishing feature.
The euphoria with fully autonomous driving has also decreased significantly, especially since the legislature wants to bring robot buses to the streets. Manufacturers are fighting against each other and against Big Data for operating system sovereignty – so it would make sense to join forces. A corresponding move by BMW head of development Frank Weber was noted in Wolfsburg. But the Volkswagen Group still believes in an in-house development that can be sold to other manufacturers. An open source solution on standard software such as Linux, for which there is already a worldwide developer community and numerous development tools including security certifications, would probably be faster.
The basic problem can hardly be solved with this either: An operating system makes little difference to the customer. The passengers only notice whether the car can keep up with the latest trends in consumer electronics or not. To achieve this, new vehicles will in future have to have five times more computing power than they need when the respective model is launched – this is how experts estimate the speed of development within a model cycle.
Not to mention autonomous driving yet: It is still difficult to predict whether the next generation of sensors will accumulate ever larger mountains of data. Whether lean algorithms and artificial intelligence can still stop the computer overkill. In contrast, the appropriate hardware – the automobile itself – is likely to lose its importance.