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Demonstrators with EU flags opposing water cannons – there have been protests against the government in Georgia for years. There would be a chance of a change of power in the fall if there is an electable alternative by then.
It’s like a ritual. Mass protests take place in the Georgian capital Tbilisi every month. The demonstrators wave flags of Georgia and Europe. Special police units march in protective equipment. They use pepper spray, rubber bullets, batons and water cannons. Protesters are arrested. Some suffer injuries.
Iconic images emerge of young people standing against the harsh jets of water with the European flag. They are celebrated as heroes who fight for European values that too many people in the EU no longer appreciate. Politicians from the EU and the USA are warning the government to protect the rights of peaceful demonstrators.
instrument against that government critic
These days the mood is particularly tense. The ruling Georgian Dream party is trying to push a law on “foreign influence” through parliament for the second time. Last year she withdrew it after violent street protests, despite a majority in parliament. This year the government is acting more decisively than ever.
Before the parliamentary elections in the fall, it obviously wants to obtain an instrument to discredit government opponents and to gain control over NGOs and the media – including harsh penalties that could force these organizations to give up. The justification is the claim that people have a right to transparency about the financing of the civil society sector.
However, the man behind the ruling party, the extremely wealthy businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili, left no doubt in a speech on April 29th. At a ruling party rally against the mass protests that have been going on for days, he attacked the United National Movement (UNM) of imprisoned ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili.
The businessman promised that after the October election, the UNM, along with all other political opponents, would “receive the punishment they deserve.” They would pay for all “crimes against the Georgian people.” He also whispered about an unidentified “global war party” that was driving Georgia into a war against Russia.
Obsession against political opponents
What Ivanishvili no longer mentions today is that he once supported Saakashvili’s government financially from the background, like he did tagesschau.de Still confirmed in 2012. Then he fell out with the president. He claimed at the time that he had sold his companies and investments in Russia and ran against Saakashvili with his Georgian Dream party. The “Georgian Dream” came to power on a massive wave of indignation over Saakashvili’s authoritarian and brutal actions against the opposition at the time.
Twelve years later, Ivanishvili’s words still reflect an obsession with his predecessors in office. But just as Saakashvili is now only a shadow of his former self, his party has lost its strength in the conflict surrounding him and the resulting splits. The other opposition parties are far weaker in the polls and have to worry about entering parliament in October.
Authoritarian partners
The ruling party “Georgian Dream”, on the other hand, has managed to fill important positions in the country with its people in its three terms in office. The demonstrators allege that she herself practices the authoritarian methods that she once accused Saakashvili’s people of.
They accuse the ruling party of turning Georgia into a satellite state of Vladimir Putin. In fact, the country has fallen behind on its way into the EU. It only received candidate status at the end of 2023, subject to conditions, while the once lagging states of Ukraine and Moldova are already one step further.
The ruling party is involved in partnerships with China, Azerbaijan and Hungary. She did not join the sanctions against Russia. It agreed to direct flights instead, so Georgian airports became a hub to Europe for Russian travelers. The US government imposed sanctions on a Georgian ex-prosecutor and alleged confidant of Ivanishvili because he is said to have cooperated with the Russian domestic secret service FSB.
However, the government has so far avoided appearing openly pro-Putin. There is no public photo of Ivanishvili or his party loyalists with Putin. The population’s distrust of Russia runs deep after centuries of foreign rule. Russian troops control two breakaway regions of Georgia, their missiles a little more than 50 kilometers from Tbilisi. This is one of the reasons why Georgians’ approval of joining the EU and NATO has been high for years.
Who could do that? Governing party replace?
The demonstrators are now calling on the EU for support. After the 2020 parliamentary election, EU Council President Charles Michel mediated between the ruling party and the opposition with ambassadors from Western countries. However, it was also opposition parties that did not stick to the negotiated compromise and continued to boycott parliament.
Opposition members like Helen Koschtaria and her party Droa (“It’s about time”) have seen themselves so restricted by the government for years that they doubt the possibility of constructive parliamentary work and a regular change of power.
However, in the battle between the ruling party and confrontational opposition, more level-headed voices are pushed into the background, as are the real needs of the people. For years, surveys have shown concerns about a sufficient livelihood and improvement.
Clear option for the parliamentary election
So far, no opposition party has managed to formulate these needs into a program in such a way that it would receive approval from the general population, especially from the conservative-oriented people in the regions. Even among those who are currently demonstrating every evening on the streets of the capital and in the port city of Batumi, there are – not yet – any clear leadership figures.
The chances of a united opposition in the parliamentary elections in the fall are good if the EU makes it clear that the current government party and its authoritarian approach will not allow the accession negotiations to begin as hoped. Then voters would have a clear option to vote for or against further path to the EU. While many politicians in the EU have previously held back from making such clear statements, the start of accession negotiations is now being increasingly openly questioned.
Previous polls suggested that the ruling party could win again, even with a constitutional majority. Then another standstill would be foreseeable and, as a result, new angry protests from the dissatisfied, more and more of whom are leaving the country.