Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock brought a guest and a topic with her from her trip to Kyiv, first to Berlin and then to Weissenhaus on the Baltic Sea on Thursday. She has invited her G-7 colleagues there – and also the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. He had taken the train to Poland with Baerbock and traveled from there to Berlin. Baerbock has also invited her counterpart from the Republic of Moldova, which, as a neighboring country to Ukraine, is under particular pressure from the Russian attack.
The G-7 foreign ministers’ meeting is of strategic importance, emphasized Baerbock in her statement on Thursday afternoon, which is intended to set the tone for the deliberations. The Russian war of aggression not only plunged Europe into a crisis, but the whole world. Specifically, this means that the Russian blockade of the Ukrainian ports is preventing the 25 million tons of grain stored there from being delivered. In African countries and in the Middle East, millions of people are therefore threatened by acute hunger crises.
Exports by road and rail instead of by sea
Baerbock adds that Putin’s goal is to divide the world community with his war of aggression. That is why the foreign ministers would discuss how to break through the Russian blockade and how to help the countries in need. In any case, it won’t be easy. The West could secure sea routes on the Black Sea, but this would be militarily comparable to establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine – and thus direct participation in the war. But all Western countries want to avoid them, not least the USA.
Ukraine, in turn, could try to reopen the blocked port of Odessa – but the military risk would be high. Kyiv is currently concentrating on preventing a Russian Navy landing operation there. So what remains is the transport of grain by rail, road, river or canal; The EU Commission is also working on corresponding plans. On these routes, however, the capacities are lower and there are also technical problems to be overcome. There are not enough wagons and Ukrainian rails have different track gauges than those used in the EU.
No less complicated are the questions that Barbock’s guest had previously raised in Berlin – and which he is unlikely to ignore during the consultations this Friday. Concrete deliveries of weapons will not play a role in Weißenhaus. But Kuleba has made it clear that Ukraine now needs Western equipment, not least fighter jets. The spokesman for the Ukrainian air force in Kyiv had already raised this demand last week. Modern US type aircraft only F-15 and F-16 with their powerful radars and electronic warfare systems would allow Ukraine to close the skies to the Russian attackers.
Officially not on the agenda, but unofficially a top topic: arms deliveries
Of course, the German hostess is tight-lipped. Baerbock says they have “clearly positioned themselves” on “no-fly zones and also on flying material”. The US has the onward delivery of MiG-29– Rejected fighter jets from Poland, and there is no indication that Washington would be willing to supply Western aircraft to Ukraine. “You don’t just give anyone one F-16 and wishes him the best of luck,” said General Jeffrey L. Harrigian, commander of the US Air Force in Europe, recently. “It’s not a recipe for success and we want to set them on the road to success.”
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is nonetheless in favor of expanding military support for Kyiv. “To help Ukraine, we have to go further and faster,” she said on Thursday evening. This also means that the country must be shown a clear way to procure military equipment according to NATO standards.
Over dinner, the ministers will discuss the strategic outlook for the war in Ukraine – which will likely depend to a large extent on what support Kyiv receives. This Friday they will continue the discussion with their colleagues from Ukraine and Moldova. It should also be about concrete support. Baerbock had already organized a support conference in Berlin after her visit to the country.
As one of the poorest countries in Europe, Moldova has taken in many refugees from Ukraine, and the blockade of the port of Odessa is damaging the economy. And last but not least, the breakaway region of Transnistria is controlled by Moscow-loyal separatists. Russia has stationed 2,000 soldiers there, recently there had been repeated incidents, explosive devices detonated. It is still possible that the war will spread to Moldova, especially since the Russian Major General Rostam Minnekayev, acting commander of the Central Military District, recently named a land bridge to Transnistria as the goal.
In addition, it should then be about the consequences for the world, only Friday afternoon will other topics such as the relationship with China or developments in North Korea, which has officially confirmed the first corona cases and, according to US information, may be preparing a new nuclear test . On Saturday, the Middle East and climate change are also on the agenda, before most participants continue to the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin. The American Tony Blinken, who had to be represented in Weißenhaus because of a corona infection, is then supposed to join them.