star survey
Fritz, the womanizer: Only 9 percent of young women would vote for Merz as chancellor
Friedrich Merz has improved his poll numbers, but the CDU leader is still not entirely convincing to most Germans
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An exclusive analysis shows who would elect Friedrich Merz as chancellor – and who wouldn’t: The CDU leader is still an old-school candidate. Not even his own party members are fully behind him.
Friedrich Merz has… star openly declared his willingness to run for chancellor (“I feel fit”). However, his personality values have actually worsened. The important group of women under 60 in particular is having a hard time with the CDU leader, according to an analysis by the Forsa Institute star shows.
23 percent of all respondents would currently elect Merz as chancellor in a direct election. This puts him clearly ahead of the ailing incumbent Olaf Scholz (15 percent) and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (18 percent), but well below the values achieved by the Union in the Sunday question (30 percent).
There is one main reason for this, says Manfred Güllner, head of the Forsa Institute: “In all age groups, Merz receives significantly lower values among women than among men.”
Friedrich Merz has a problem with women
Specifically, 28 percent of men would vote for the CDU politician, but only 18 percent of women. Younger women in particular are strangers to Friedrich Merz. Of women between 18 and 29, only 9 percent would vote for the 68-year-old and of those between 30 and 45 only 13 percent. Among men, support for Merz is highest among 45 to 59 year olds at 29 percent. Among those over 60, it reaches 28 percent. The opposition leader as a veteran candidate.
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Elections, as the old saying goes, are won in the middle. “Merz would be chosen primarily by those eligible to vote who place themselves on the right-wing political spectrum,” analyzed Forsa boss Manfred Güllner. At 47 percent, the CDU leader’s figure in the right-wing political camp is 18 percentage points higher than the proportion of those who consider themselves to be in the political center.
The man from the Sauerland obviously doesn’t resonate in urban environments. In cities with more than half a million inhabitants, just 20 percent would vote for him.
A quarter of CDU members would not vote for the party leader
One of Merz’s weaknesses is that – unlike CSU boss Markus Söder – he does not fully mobilize the Union’s supporters. Of voters who voted CDU in the last federal election, half (52 percent) would choose Merz today in a direct election. Even among his current supporters, his support is not much higher at 58 percent. Of the CDU members, only 77 percent would choose their own party leader. He doesn’t convince just under a quarter – here too, probably especially women.
Forsa regularly collects data for the star Characteristic profiles of top politicians. Compared to January 2023, Friedrich Merz can only improve on a single criterion: 49 percent of Germans consider him to be a strong leader – three percentage points more than in the previous year. His most positive quality is that he can speak clearly (57 percent). The CDU leader had to accept the biggest decline in the important criterion “competent” – from 52 to 44 percent. Controversial statements about dentist appointments for refugees or tactical moves in tax policy may have been damaging here.
SPD reserve chancellor Pistorius beats Merz by far
Only 28 percent consider Friedrich Merz to be trustworthy. For comparison: 51 percent of Germans say this about Defense Minister and SPD Reserve Chancellor Boris Pistorius. The soft factors are the weak point in the image of the CDU leader. Just 22 percent of Germans find him likeable. 49 percent of citizens and even 65 percent of Union voters say this about Pistorius. Just 32 percent characterize their own top man in this way.
Conclusion of the numerical analysis: Despite the catastrophic appearance of the traffic light coalition, the Union cannot really get past the 30 percent mark. And the likely candidate for chancellor does worse than his own party. This fits with another survey result that Forsa provided for the star has collected: Only 38 percent of Germans believe that a federal government led by the CDU/CSU and headed by Friedrich Merz could deal with the current problems better than the alliance of the SPD, Greens and FDP. This means an increase of at least 20 percentage points compared to August 2022, but a clear majority of citizens (55 percent) doubt that a Merz government could do better. Friedrich Merz is still nothing more than a pseudo-giant.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa for stern and RTL Deutschland on February 28th and 29th. Database: 1008 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points. For the Chancellor question, Forsa carried out a special evaluation of the RTL-ntv trend barometer for stern.