While the war continues in Sudan at the start of 2024, despite international mediation attempts, General Hemedti has increased diplomatic visits in recent weeks. Building on his recent military breakthroughs, the head of the Rapid Support Forces (FSR) is seeking to establish himself as a credible interlocutor abroad, while at the same time marginalizing his enemy, General Burhan, head of the regular army.
Nine months of war and no truce in sight. The deadly conflict in Sudan, opposing the regular army of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces of General Mohamed Hamdane Daglo known as Hemedti, has caused the internal displacement of more than 7.5 million people, worsening every day a little more to an already catastrophic humanitarian situation.
Attempts at mediation by the United States, Saudi Arabia and even Kenya have so far not led to the establishment of a real truce.
Concentrated for a time in the Darfur region and in the capital Khartoum, the conflict has expanded in recent months to other parts of the territory, in particular to the northeast and southeast of the capital.
General Hemedti, whose troops are making progress on the ground, has engaged in a regional diplomatic offensive in recent weeks. Capitalizing on his recent military successes, the warlord now intends to win the battle for image.
I was pleased to participate in the 42nd Extraordinary Session of IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government, held in Entebbe, Republic of Uganda, which discussed the ways to halt the ongoing war in the Sudan.
The summit was a significant opportunity for us to brief the… pic.twitter.com/5HNxplaZ9t
— Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (@GeneralDagllo) January 18, 2024
Military breakthroughs on several fronts
The organization Regional Network for Cultural Rights sounded the alarm in mid-January, estimating that the progression of the conflict now threatens the remains of the kingdom of Kush, sites classified as UNESCO world heritage sites, 2,300 years old. .
According to the NGO, the Rapid Support Forces have carried out two incursions in the last two months on the sites of Naqa and Musawwarat es-Sufra, located 170 km northeast of the capital.
If Nile State claims that the air force managed to repel the paramilitaries without causing damage, these incursions reflect the favorable dynamic in which General Hemedti’s forces are operating on the ground.
According to the NGO Acled (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), a specialist in the collection of conflict-related data, rapid forces now control “almost all of the states of Darfur”, in the west of the country.
In recent weeks, they have also made a significant breakthrough in the state of Al-Jazeera, southeast of Khartoum, where they managed to take the capital, Wad Madani, on December 18.
The routed army
The capture of this megalopolis of 400,000 inhabitants, one of the largest cities in the country, went largely under the media radar, focused on the Israeli offensive in Gaza.
In Sudan, it aroused widespread criticism of the Rapid Support Forces, renowned for their brutality, quickly accused of engaging in abuses and looting. But it is above all the regular army which crystallizes the anger. After a few days of fighting on the outskirts, it withdrew without even fighting, abandoning the city.
“We will hold all negligent commanders accountable. Those responsible for this withdrawal will have to answer for their actions, without any leniency,” General Burhan lambasted, trying to save face.
But the damage is done. “The Sudanese expected that, despite its poor performance in the west, the army would be more successful in protecting its historic riverine backyard,” reads a recent report from the NGO International Crisis Group. “While it has not won any major battle, many Sudanese wonder if it is not today on the verge of collapse, although all scenarios remain possible.”
Charm offensive
On December 27, nine days after the lightning victory of his troops at Wad Madani, General Hemedthi began a regional diplomatic tour. A real marathon, with stages in Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, South Africa and Rwanda.
Until then, the paramilitary leader’s exchanges with neighboring countries had remained confidential, and for good reason. Before the war, the general served as vice-president of the transition, led by General Burhan. Its Rapid Support Forces are also accused of having killed several thousand people in the Darfur region, during ethnic massacres.
On January 11, in a long message posted on the social network, General Hemedthi reported on a telephone interview with the Secretary General of the United Nations. He denounces the abuses of the army, described as a “militia”, and indicates that he revealed to Antonio Guterres his “vision to end the war”.
At the start of the conflict, “the two armed groups respected a certain form of chain of command. But they both experienced significant losses and recruited massively. The new fighters, and surely some of the old ones, behave extremely poorly towards -to the Sudanese population”, explains Roland Marchal, researcher at the Sciences-Po International Research Center. “On both sides, it is not exactly the same thing, but on both sides the human rights violations are massive,” adds this specialist in the region.
On the eve of a meeting devoted to Sudan in Kampala, General Burhan announced on January 17 the freezing of his relations with the East African regional bloc, Igad (Intergovernmental Authority on Development), which was trying to set up mediation, accusing him of “interference” in Sudanese affairs.
A golden opportunity for General Hemedti who immediately condemned “those who obstruct the peace process in Sudan”, calling them “traitors to the nation“.
“General Burhan believed until now that he could claim the title of president of the Sudanese national government” even though “the national army is bombing its own population,” underlines Roland Marchal. “Hemedti appears more and more like the winner of this confrontation, he now hopes to have his military gains of the last two months politically validated.”
During this time “the population suffers, dies and flees a war in its own country, without the international community seeming to take the measure of the crisis” laments the researcher.
According to a largely underestimated report from the NGO Acled, some 13,000 people died during the nine months of war in Sudan. On January 18, the UN announced the start of an investigation into war crimes in the country. This will focus in particular on the numerous accusations of rape and the recruitment of child soldiers since the start of the conflict on April 15.