In politics, slips of the tongue are often cruel. Christian Estrosi recently hosted Edouard Philippe for a “Nissart feast” in his city. At the microphone, in front of 6,000 people, the mayor of the Riviera capital and vice-president of Horizons wishes to say a few words for his guest. “My friend, Edouard Balladur…” he blurted out, before putting his face in his hands.
The dumpling makes the audience and the person concerned laugh, but is perhaps not so harmless. Because the current mayor of Le Havre remains very popular with the French and is at the top of the polls for the future presidential election, like a certain… Edouard Balladur, before his defeat in 1995. So, at the time when the person concerned makes his return with the publication of a work on Wednesday and the parliamentary days of Horizons, Thursday and Friday in Angers, his supporters warn against the label of favorite.
“The mistake would be to believe that it is already won”
Edouard Philippe is certainly not yet seated on the throne, but he has benefited from a favorable cushion since his departure from Matignon, in the summer of 2020, after six months of the Covid-19 crisis. “When he left the post of Prime Minister and launched Horizons the following year, we were told ‘it’s an air bubble, the blow will quickly die down!’ “Three years later, its base is still as solid,” praises Frédéric Valletoux, deputy for Seine-et-Marne and Horizons spokesperson. “He remains in the hearts of the French, his words are listened to and expected. Many would like to have this love rating in the majority…”
While Gérald Darmanin and others are also trying to chart a path to embody the post-Macron era, the strong popularity of Edouard Philippe is a significant asset. According to an Elabe survey published at the end of August, he is perceived by the French as the best possible successor to the President of the Republic (31%), far ahead of Bruno Le Maire (16%), Gérald Darmanin (12%) or Gabriel Attal (11%). In a survey OpinionWay, published on September 3, the same man crushes the match with the aim of a rallying of the right and the center against his competitors. “To win in 2027, the presidential camp will need to be united. In this context, the polls will produce a selection effect,” confirms Mathieu Lefèbvre, Renaissance deputy for Val-de-Marne. Who adds: “For the moment, he is one step ahead. And he opens debates, such as on school or immigration, he is not content to wait until 2027. The mistake would be to believe that it has already been won.”
Philippe and the “Juppé syndrome”
On this point, Edouard Philippe is already a hot cat. For the 2017 presidential election, his mentor Alain Juppé was, for two long years, predicted to be the winner in opinion polls. But the ex-mayor of Bordeaux and his “Juppémania” were finally swept away in the Republican primary at the end of 2016 by François Fillon, to the great dismay of his spokesperson at the time. “He was in the front row, he remembers it very well. He is perfectly aware that he should not organize his calendar according to the polls, even if the context was very different in the context of an internal primary,” explains Frédéric Valletoux. “We’re lucky, he has this experience. He knows that the poll does not make tomorrow’s election,” adds former MP Cendra Motin, Horizons representative in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes.
The risk would therefore be to rely too much on this popularity and not take any risks, like Alain Juppé’s campaign in 2016. “A Juppéist never wins. Because it’s risk averse. Juppeism is a provincial grocery store, mocks the LR deputy of Pas-de-Calais Pierre-Henri Dumont. I grew up at the Sarko school, politics is risk, roughness. It takes love, hate, it takes body. The problem is that Philippe is too smooth. Give me a speech that stands out? » For three years, the former head of government has remained rather withdrawn from the public debate, apart from a few barbs on pensions or the public debt.
“The strategy is to speak wisely to keep the ears of the French. He decided not to howl with the wolves and not get bogged down in controversies, many could be inspired by it,” retorts Cendra Motin.
So far, the strategy seems to be working, cautions Frédéric Dabi. “He maintains a solid following, which is rare for a former prime minister. He was not penalized by the “yellow vests”, the 80 km/h, Covid-19, nor by his defense of retirement at 67 for example,” recalls the political scientist and general director Opinion of Ifop . But “this label of favorite does not mean much. The history of the presidential elections has also shown that favorites can lose as much as win.