Fateful choice for Europe
With Macron or Le Pen in Paris?
Campaign posters for French presidential candidates Emmanuel Macron (left) and Marine Le Pen in Paris. Photo: Ludovic Marin/AFP/dpa
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France is facing a change of course: Either it continues with the liberal President Emmanuel Macron or the nationalist Marine Le Pen takes over the highest office of state.
It is a crucial choice of direction that the French are about to make next Sunday.
If the liberal and pro-European President Emmanuel Macron stays in office for another five years despite criticism that cannot be ignored, or if the right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen succeeds in triumphing in the Élysée Palace at the third attempt If the people of France are taking the risk of turbulence in their own country and in Europe, that inevitably threaten the policy change announced by Le Pen? Or do you prefer continuity despite political frustration in the current crisis? Before the election, polls point to a rather tight race.
It is not certain whether the call for a protective wall against the right will have the same success as in previous attempts to reach the highest state office by Le Pen in 2017 and before that by her father Jean-Marie in 2002, which led to the final round. Because Le Pen is now trying for their part, to mobilize those who are more than fed up with the policies of the incumbent Macron and who previously took to the streets as “yellow vests”, opponents of vaccination or neglected school and clinic staff, to blockade their opponents.
Replay of the 2017 runoff election
The duel Macron against Le Pen is a repeat of the 2017 runoff election – under new auspices. Macron clearly won with two-thirds of the votes. Polling institutes currently see Macron between 53.5 and 55.5 percent, while Le Pen is getting close to 45 to 46.5 percent. Many of the 48.7 million registered voters could abstain out of frustration or disapproval of both candidates. The outcome is therefore difficult to predict.
The fact that Macron and Le Pen made it into the runoff at all is also due to the fact that France is now politically divided into three separate blocs. Macron, who wanted to overcome the classic split between the socialists and the bourgeois right, has created a broad center with personalities from both camps, but the former mainstream parties have been considerably weakened under him. Opposition to Macron’s center alliance is now closer to the left and right edges of the political spectrum.
At the same time, the 53-year-old Le Pen has managed to change significantly in recent years, at least outwardly. She is deliberately friendly, tries to refrain from making radical statements and, despite similar demands as before, appears moderate. Under the influence of a creeping right-wing drift in France, in the course of which Macron also continued to shift to conservative points of view, the candidate who was so feared in 2017 became socially acceptable. And so many French people are looking at the upcoming runoff election with resignation and frustration rather than fear.
Le Pen as President – for many, sheer horror
Very different in Germany and Europe. Even if the 44-year-old Macron is not the ideal partner for everyone and some in Brussels believe that he represents self-interest rather than that of the community, the idea of a President Le Pen is sheer horror for many. The nationalist makes no secret of the fact that she dreams of a Europe in which Brussels has little say over the member states and national law takes precedence. She also wants to pull France out of the NATO command structure and end military cooperation with Berlin. In any case, Germany is not their preferred partner. Rather, she wants to turn to Great Britain or Hungary.
Le Pen is also likely to become a significant problem for the closed western front against Russia in view of the war in Ukraine. The politician, who is considered a friend of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly made advances to Russia in the past few days for the post-war period. Only: In France, all of this plays a subordinate role. Here you look primarily at your own country.
TV debate before the crucial election
And there is the eagerly awaited TV debate between Macron and Le Pen on Wednesday. While Le Pen was a total embarrassment to the talented orator Macron five years ago, she now hopes, with good preparation, to be able to harp about his failures during the presidency. Macron, on the other hand, is likely to take apart his competitor’s election program and hold it against the light of Realpolitik. The decisive factor will not only be who gives the better picture, but who will be able to get unsettled, crisis-ridden, left behind and completely unnerved compatriots to the ballot box with their appearance.