No, there is no end in sight, says Udo Hemmerling. Hemmerling is Vice-Secretary General of the German Farmers’ Association. These days he is primarily concerned with the war in Ukraine and its consequences in Germany. “We assume that the critical situation will continue well into 2023.” The critical situation is that Ukraine has not been able to deliver grain since Russian troops have been blockading ports there. High prices for fertilizers because their energy-intensive production depends directly on energy prices. Expensive pesticides because part of the Russian deliveries are canceled. Rising animal feed costs worldwide. And then there is the fear of a gas embargo, which could ultimately also affect dairies and bakeries. It’s a nightmare scenario that the farmers’ association has in mind.
Take gas, for example: If an embargo or a delivery stop actually leads to a shortage in which gas is rationed for the economy, this could also hit farms hard. For example, those that raise chicks or piglets and generate the necessary heat with gas. Or for those special crops that depend on heated greenhouses. Things could actually get tight for the latter: Because in a paper that outlines the Federal Network Agency’s considerations in the event of a bottleneck, the agency’s “special attention” is only intended for animal welfare. Agriculture is already demanding a classification as “systemically important” in order to avoid the cut. But that’s what many industries want at the moment.
Less set-aside in arable land
Beyond the gas, a mixture of relief, aid and weakened conditions should dampen the critical situation, the farmers’ association demands. For the time being, farmers should not have to set aside four percent of arable land for nature conservation in order to continue to benefit from EU agricultural subsidies. Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens) has been fighting this demand for weeks, with reference to the climate and species crisis, which did not pause because of the war in Ukraine. But the farmers are not giving up. They would also like to abolish the current maximum limits for fertilization in nitrate-polluted areas for “water-friendly farms”. So far, however, they have fallen on deaf ears. On the other hand, Özdemir supports another demand of the association: A postponement of the specifications for crop rotation. This would allow farmers to grow wheat on areas where crop rotation is actually due. The EU still has to agree to this.
The farmers also have interest-free loans in mind – namely for the purchase of expensive operating resources, i.e. fertilizer, crop protection or diesel. That would at least bridge the time until the harvest has come in: Then, thanks to the high prices for agricultural products, there are also hefty proceeds. That is the other side of the crisis – because good money can currently be made with grain or milk. “I don’t see any lamentations now,” admits Hemmling. But higher consumer prices: The association predicts that increases of ten percent and more could occur as early as summer or autumn. Higher prices are a particular danger for developing countries. You should relieve it by higher production in Europe.
Just on Monday, however, a short study by the environmental foundation WWF was published, which sheds a different light on agriculture. The bottom line is that the EU imports more calories than it exports, for example in the form of feed. And half of the European grain production ends up in the feeding trough. “The EU must produce and consume differently,” says WWF nutrition expert Tanja Dräger. With smaller animal stocks, for example, there were automatically more crops to feed the world.