Brazil’s ex-president Bolsonaro is no longer allowed to run until 2030. That was decided by the Supreme Electoral Court. The 68-year-old wants to lodge a complaint – and could look for a placeholder.
It was reserved for Judge Carmen Lucia to speak the decisive words. Just before 1 p.m. local time, she voted to strip Jair Messias Bolsonaro of the right to stand as a candidate. This means that the right-wing extremist ex-president is blocked from all political offices until 2030. He will not be able to stand in the upcoming presidential election in 2026.
Five of the seven Supreme Electoral Court justices find Bolsonaro guilty of abusing his office to influence the late 2022 election. Among other things, he is accused of attacking the electoral justice system and questioning the electoral system.
“What should I do now?” Bolsonaro asked a TV journalist after the decision, only to answer immediately himself: “I will speak to my lawyers and the complaint, dear journalist, goes to the Federal Court of Justice.” Exit there: uncertain.
Bolsonaro speaks of “massacre”
Bolsonaro sees himself as a victim of political justice. He describes the decision of the Supreme Electoral Court as a “massacre” of him. Before the election, he said at the funeral of a political companion in Mina, he had been seriously injured by a knife wound in the stomach. Now the judiciary has rammed a knife in his back.
How things will continue for him politically is currently open. Political scientist Oliver Stünkel sees Bolsonaro facing a dilemma: Bolsonaro’s exclusion from all political offices poses a major problem because he has to decide who can replace him. “That makes it difficult for his project to dominate the rights in Brazil in the long term.”
Bolsonaro is the first ex-president of Brazil to be denied the right to stand as a candidate. Political scientist Stünkel believes that the electoral court’s decision does not necessarily mean the end of the 68-year-old’s political career. In Brazil it is often the case that court decisions are withdrawn after a few years. “I don’t think he has given up his political ambitions yet.”
Strengthening the moderate right?
For now, at least, he needs a placeholder. There is speculation that Bolsonaro could enthrone one of his sons or his wife, who is 27 years his junior. She let him know today via Instagram, garnished with Bible quotes and oaths of love: “I am under your command, my captain.”
For four years, Bolsonaro polarized Brazilian society, seconded by his wife, sons and evangelical Christians. Those who were not with him or with him were discredited. Many conservative politicians were also hit by the ban of right-wing extremist Bolsonaro.
Political scientist Stünkel speculates that the Supreme Electoral Court’s decision could have a positive effect on the political climate in Brazil. This could strengthen Brazil’s moderate right, because there is currently no one in sight who can bundle the radical forces in the radical right-wing spectrum as well as Bolsonaro. According to Stünkel, a pragmatic and factual cooperation between left-wing President Lula da Silva and moderate right-wing forces is also conceivable.
Bolsonaro is threatened with further proceedings. It will deal with fake vaccination data and usurped jewelry from presidential possessions. The court should also clarify what role he may have played in the storming of the Brazilian government district on January 8th.