The Kremlin is very quiet right now. After a series of explosions at the Russian air base near Saky the official version from Moscow is still: A fire caused ammunition to explode. Most likely, however, it was not an accident, but an attack by partisans or the Ukrainian army. The Russian Ministry of Defense also said on Wednesday that no aircraft had been damaged. At least this claim is demonstrably false – this is proven by new satellite images showing at least eight burned wrecks. Some analysts even want to have recognized up to 14 possibly destroyed airplanes and helicopters in the pictures. Earlier recordings had shown parked fighter planes in the same places, probably of the type SU-30 and SU-24.
Parked Russian warplanes can be seen in this satellite image of Saky, taken before the August 9 blasts.
(Photo: Planet Labs PBC/AP)
This is a disaster for the Kremlin not only because of the losses in equipment, ammunition, fuel and possibly also pilots. The airport is located on the Crimean peninsula, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014, about 200 kilometers from the nearest Ukrainian position. Since the Ukrainian armed forces have no or very few weapons with such a range in their arsenal, Crimea was considered virtually unassailable. And yet half a Russian military airport went up in flames there on Tuesday. This is also a catastrophe for Moscow’s propaganda, according to which everything always goes according to Russian plans.
The Kremlin also knows with great certainty that it was probably an attack. After the war rhetoric of the last few months, one would have expected harsh reactions from Moscow: threats from President Vladimir Putin with “unprecedented consequences” or a volley of cruise missiles on Kyiv. But nothing of the sort happened. Instead, Moscow immediately reported: It was an accident. Happens. As if it were completely normal when a military base just caught fire.
But even if the Kremlin’s version of the accident is correct, then, as the satellite images now show, nothing less than a very, very big accident would have happened in Saky on Wednesday. Then serious doubts about the basic safety and competence of the Russian air force would be appropriate.
The loss of face would be too great
Apparently, however, Russia’s leadership would rather accept a flimsy narrative than concede a spectacular military success to Ukraine. The new satellite images give no indication of how this could have been achieved. A rocket attack, by partisans or Ukrainian special forces: these are still the most likely scenarios. The Kremlin must negate each of these possibilities. Because the loss of face would be too great if one admitted that Russian troops could be hit anywhere in the occupied territories and that even their own anti-aircraft defenses are powerless against it.
Moscow wants to avoid this impression at all costs. And it’s not just the pictures on social networks that need to be refuted. Hundreds of Russian tourists witnessed the attack on the Crimean beach. All of them may now think differently about Russia’s armed forces and alleged Russian invulnerability than the government would like. Even the best propaganda reaches its limits against the power of self-experience.
The narrative of the accident could also have another motivation. Since Moscow regards Crimea as Russian territory, it should respond to an attack with harsh retaliatory measures. If Russia could respond with force, it probably would have happened by now. It is quite possible that the Russian armed forces are not in a position to do this at the moment. There are indications of this: the Russian offensives are hardly making any progress, troops have to be constantly moved back and forth, depending on where a Ukrainian counteroffensive is to be expected. In addition, according to reports, the Ukrainian air defense has repeatedly succeeded in intercepting Russian cruise missiles in the past few weeks.
A Ukrainian attack that nobody saw coming – and a retaliatory strike that then fizzled out without effect? That would probably be even more embarrassing for Russia than an accident.