The bad news accompanied, like a swallow, the arrival of spring. At the end of March, the government revealed a deficit for the year 2023 much higher than its estimates: 5.5% of GDP (compared to 4.9% forecast).
And this Wednesday, Bruno Le Maire unveiled his new public finance trajectory for 2024, at a deficit of 5.1%. With 10 billion savings to be found in addition to the 10 billion already planned. Why is this slippage on the economic front such a burden for Emmanuel Macron? We take stock.
A bullet for the campaign
The question of deficits hits the European campaign, already off to a bad start for the presidential camp. Faced with the steamroller Jordan Bardella, the Macronists intended to use once again the economic weapon to waver the one who has been at the top of the polls for months. “The RN, like the LR elsewhere, are attacking the government on the deficits, but their project would make them explode,” sighs a Renaissance MP.
However, criticism of the lack of seriousness of the National Rally project, at the national level as well as in the European Parliament, could this time suffer from the government’s record. “We are talking about billions of euros in deficits, that worries the French,” says Gilles Pennelle, RN executive. These attacks against us are no longer effective, and this distressing context amplifies the useful anti-Macron vote for Bardella,” he smiles.
The threat of a hidden tax
This economic slippage also opens the door to criticism, particularly from the right. “We are talking about a debt of 3,000 billion euros. This Mozart idea of finance is coming back to Macron like a boomerang! », breathes the LR deputy of Alpes-Maritimes Eric Pauget. Several rating agencies could downgrade the French rating at the end of April, a few months before the election. The right, smelling the right vein, has indicated that it will launch a commission of inquiry into the causes of the deficit. In recent hours, she has not failed to also raise the possibility of a “hidden tax” by the macronie, which would only be revealed after the June 9 election.
“With such projections, the 3% target in 2027 is a sweet dream. It will be increasingly difficult to disguise this financial Waterloo and hide the secret plan to increase taxes,” thus assured on X this Wednesday Eric Ciotti, the head of LR. The boss of the deputies, Olivier Marleix, also suspected the government of having “a hidden plan to restore the accounts”, pointing out the under-indexation of pensions to inflation. An insidious attack – so far rejected by the government – which could wreak havoc on the elderly Macronist electorate.
Here’s the motion of censure again!
Still with the “deficit” card, the right has once again raised the possibility of tabling a motion of censure to bring down the government of Gabriel Attal. “The question is not if, but when they will file it. It is good to prepare for it,” sighs a Macronist elected official.
If the majority is already in a cold sweat, it is because such a motion could pass this time. On the left and right, we have already announced that they are ready to vote on a motion tabled by LR, the National Rally, France Insoumise, the Communist Party and certain environmentalists.
Tensions at the top of the state
These bleak economic prospects have heightened tensions at the top of the state. In recent days, Bruno Le Maire has raised the idea of putting in place a finance law to correct the budget for the current year. Desires which greatly annoyed the Elysée and Matignon. “Bruno, you’ve been here for seven years! “, the Head of State would have said in a small group to his Minister of Economy and Finance, according to Le Figaro. “Blowing the Le Maire fuse is a possibility,” recognizes a majority executive. Enough to dampen the mood a little more within the majority.