The criticism came promptly, and it was harsh. Toxic even. No sooner had the environment committee of the European Parliament rejected the new EU nature conservation law on Tuesday than angry press statements rained down. MEPs from the Greens and the Social Democrats accused the chairman of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP), the German CSU politician Manfred Weber, of making pacts “with right-wing populists and right-wing extremists” and of seeking “closeness to right-wing nationalists and right-wing radicals”. Rasmus Andresen, spokesman for the German Greens in the European Parliament, criticized Weber for “flirting with nationalist and anti-European parties”, weakening the “fire wall against the right” and harming Europe’s democracy.
In fact, Weber’s EPP people voted against the law in the committee. And indeed, the parliamentarians of the right-wing populist parliamentary group EKR and the right-wing extremist parliamentary group ID also voted against the bill. However, the German FDP politician Andreas Glück and other liberals also rejected the law. However, they were spared the accusation of being the stirrup holder of the radical right-wing EU enemies.
The parties are positioning themselves for the European elections
This in turn suggests that at least part of the outrage had less to do with a vote in a committee than with the beginning of the European election campaign. It is still almost a year before the citizens of the EU can vote on their new MEPs. But the positioning of the parties for election day – and the time after that, when the EU’s top posts are filled – has already begun. Weber’s cooperation with politicians and parties that are significantly further to the right than he and the EPP are part of this positioning. The same applies to harsh criticism of what the Green Andresen calls “flirting” with the right.
To understand Weber’s strategy, a look at the political map of the EU is enough: in the past few months, conservative parties have taken over or are about to take over the government in several countries – from Italy to Sweden and Finland to Spain. But either these new governments do not belong to Weber’s moderate EPP family of parties, or they do but depend on the help of a party further to the right.
The party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whom Weber particularly courted, the far-right Fratelli d’Italia, is part of the right-wing populist group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in the European Parliament. Stockholm and Helsinki are governed by prime ministers whose parties belong to the EPP, but who have to rely on two ECR parties: the Sweden Democrats and the True Finns. A similar coalition of middle-class conservatives and right-wing populists could emerge in Madrid after next month’s election.
Weber can read surveys – and adapt to trends
Weber can hardly ignore this development. In fact, with his opening up to parties from the ECR parliamentary group at the European level, he is following a political shift to the right that has long been evident in many places in the EU at the national level. Weber only formulated three criteria for cooperation with right-wing parties – the interpretation of which is largely up to him: they must be pro-European, they must stand by Ukraine, and they must not question the rule of law.
In practice, this requirement only separates the EPP from genuine right-wing extremist and nationalist parties such as the Hungarian Fidesz, the Polish PiS or the French RN of Marine Le Pen – and from the Alternative for Germany. Nevertheless, there is open unease about Weber’s course among the Union parties in Germany, where there is still a lot of talk about the “fire wall” against the AfD.
On the other hand, Weber, a Lower Bavarian who nobody would seriously suspect of right-wing extremist tendencies, can read polls. And for the 2024 European elections, as things stand at present, they are predicting significant losses for the political center parties and gains for the right-wing parties. Depending on the forecast, the ECR group could gain around 20 seats, while the Greens, Liberals, Social Democrats and Christian Democrats together lose around 80 seats. The Greens in particular could be badly plucked in the elections at the beginning of June next year.
The previous majority is in danger of crumbling
This shakes the comfortable majority that the EPP has had together with the Social Democrats and the Liberals in the European Parliament. Safe majorities could only be achieved with the Greens parliamentary group. But Weber doesn’t want to rely on them – just as little on the Social Democrats. This problem could become relevant for Weber right after the European elections. Because one of the first votes in the new parliament will be on the future leadership of the EU Commission. In 2019, parliament only confirmed the CDU politician Ursula von der Leyen as Commission President with a very narrow majority.
In Brussels, there is a stubborn assertion that Weber has still not forgiven his party colleague for getting the post instead of him. However, it is unlikely that he will sabotage von der Leyen’s re-election for personal reasons. The German Union parties belong to the EPP, for the CSU man and EPP chairman Weber, a German commission chief from the CDU is politically extremely valuable – regardless of the fact that von der Leyen’s everyday politics sometimes correspond more to the ideas of the Greens, especially when it comes to politics Climate and nature protection.
Should von der Leyen run for office again next year and be nominated by the EU heads of state and government, Weber would have to organize a second majority in Parliament for her. Compared to 2019, however, the 50 votes of the Polish PiS deputies and Hungarian Fidesz parliamentarians will most likely be missing for the confirmation, because the von der Leyens Commission blocked tens of billions in EU subsidies for the governments in Warsaw and Budapest due to corruption problems and violations of the rule of law . So Weber has to look for a replacement for these votes. A part should come from the Greens. The rest? Maybe from further to the right.