Kilicdaroglu’s prospects of winning Turkey’s presidential election are dwindling – and with them the hopes pinned on him in the EU and NATO. Because the opposition stands for a different foreign policy.
If Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the CHP and candidate for a party alliance, replaces Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in next Sunday’s run-off election, he also wants to readjust foreign policy.
During the election campaign, Kilicdaroglu repeatedly made it clear that he wanted a change, a new tone in foreign policy: more Western-oriented, away from the cozy course towards Russia.
Strategic compass to the west
Under Kilicdaroglu there would probably be no male friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This also became clear in a Twitter post by Kilicdaroglu shortly before the first round of the elections. He warned Russia against meddling and interfering with the elections. “Keep your hands off the Turkish state,” he wrote. A clear message to Moscow – although they are striving for “a balanced relationship”.
“The strategic compass is clearly pointing west,” says Kristian Brakel from the Heinrich Böll Foundation. However, the political analyst believes that Turkey would not adopt all Western positions even under Kilicdaroglu. Turkey would probably not join the sanctions against Russia.
Away from the one-man policy
Should Kilicdaroglu win, he would have a mammoth task after the elections, says Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute for Turkish Politics in Washington – in rebuilding and strengthening institutions such as the foreign ministry.
Erdogan had increasingly expanded the power of the president at the expense of the government cabinet. Foreign policy is now also primarily determined by him. In her book about Erdogan’s power politics, “Erdogan’s War,” Tol describes how the president’s politics serve only one goal: maintaining power.
This policy could change under Kilicdaroglu. According to Tol, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should be given more powers again. Turkey could then become more predictable.
Between continuity and change
But foreign policy miracles are unlikely to come from a new government. “National interests and feelings will continue to dominate,” says political advisor Suat Özcelebi.
Kilicdaroglu’s very heterogeneous six-party alliance wants to maintain just as good relations with Russia as with the United States. In the Ukraine war, Turkey sees it further als agent.
Kilicdaroglu found clear words on Sweden’s NATO accession. He will support enlargement: “Of course” he agrees with Sweden’s accession.
aggressive refugee policy
Neighboring Greece is concerned about the extremely nationalist Iyi party, which is part of the Kilicdaroglu alliance. But for the relationship with the EU, the biggest challenge is likely to be the migration issue.
Kilicdaroglu and other representatives of his alliance have repeatedly announced that they want to send the approximately three and a half million Syrian refugees back to their homeland as quickly as possible. With the addition that the structure for this repatriation had to be created there beforehand. That’s why Kilicdaroglu has always announced that he wants to improve relations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Before the run-off, the challenger sharpened his tone again, probably also to win the strong nationalist camp over to his side. “I declare that as soon as I come to power, I will send all refugees home. Period.” With these words he attacks Erdogan’s refugee policy and blames him for letting “ten million refugees” into the country. Foreign policy in Turkey is always domestic policy, says Gonül Tol, describing the logic followed by all political camps.
demands on the EU
Kilicdaroglu wants to renegotiate the so-called refugee pact with the EU. The EU would probably have to prepare for tough negotiations. In the end, there could be an agreement that involves a lot of money. And about concrete EU accession prospects for Turkey.
A new government would also want to change that quickly, as Kilicdaroglu promised during the election campaign: Within just three months, Turkish citizens should be visa-free when traveling to the EU. So far, even a short visit is not possible without a visa, let alone a holiday. The hurdles for a visa are high, and for many it is also hardly affordable.
A new style?
Even if foreign policy changes only slowly – the political style is likely to change. Kilicdaroglu apparently does not want to act as sole ruler like his predecessor. He wants to return to parliamentary democracy and involve more institutions and people in his politics. That could facilitate talks with foreign policy partners.
Kilicdaroglu is seen by many as a somewhat pale bureaucrat, but also as an affable and reliable politician. That could certainly help him in the difficult task of political reorientation. And also with a fresh start in foreign relations.