Status: 07.02.2022 6:32 p.m
Diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis with Moscow are in full swing. At the same time, Brussels is feverishly looking for alternatives to Russian gas supplies.
Kadri Simson is looking for allies, and the EU Energy Commissioner is traveling around the world to do so. In Washington, she is currently consulting with the US government. On Friday she met Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shabahzov in Baku – an ally, because the EU operates the southern gas corridor together with Azerbaijan, a pipeline network to transport natural gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe: “The focus was on how we increase gas supply through the southern corridor in the short term to compensate for the failure of other pipelines.”
Natural gas deliveries as a weapon?
In plain language: the failure of Russian deliveries. The state-owned company Gazprom fulfills its contracts with the EU, but does not go beyond them. An amazing business practice in view of the gigantic demand, says Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She accuses Moscow of using gas as a means of political pressure: “We see it in Ukraine. We saw it in Moldova. We notice it in the low levels here.”
In Germany, the gas level is currently 35 percent, much less than in previous years. 40 percent of the natural gas consumed in the EU comes from Russia. According to the Commission, around 20 EU countries are dependent on Russian imports. In second place are gas imports from Norway with 38 percent. The rest, 20 to 25 percent, is liquefied natural gas, LNG, mostly from the US.
In the worst case, if Moscow turns off the gas tap and temperatures drop sharply, Europe’s storage facilities would be empty by the end of March – according to a study by the Bruegel think tank. Energy expert Georg Zachmann doesn’t expect that at first: “As long as Russia continues to deliver at the current low level, there should be enough gas in Europe for this winter. If there isn’t a massive political escalation, that’s the most likely scenario.”
Has the EU done its homework?
Some calm down by referring to past decades: even in the chilliest times of the Cold War, Moscow did not stop the flow of gas. According to Bruegel expert Zachmann, however, this can no longer be relied on: “For Russia, the European gas market is becoming less important due to the planned exit from fossil fuels, so that there are fewer concerns about the future of natural gas sales than a few years ago .”
Tensions with Moscow have not only arisen since the deployment of troops on the border with Ukraine. Despite this, little has changed in Europe’s dependence on Russian energy imports in recent years. But commission chief von der Leyen emphasizes: “We’ve done our homework since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. At that time there was just one LNG terminal, now there are over 20. And we’ve invested heavily in renewable energies.”
Frantic energy diplomacy
LNG is natural gas liquefied at low temperatures that is not pumped through pipelines but transported by tanker ships. According to the Commission, the corresponding EU landing terminals are two-thirds full, so there is room for improvement. Hence the trip to Azerbaijan, hence intensive contacts with Egypt, Algeria and Qatar, the world’s largest LNG producer. The Commission is also examining whether it can redirect deliveries already agreed with Asia to Europe.
According to experts, however, it is unclear how quickly alternative suppliers can step in – and on what terms. Bruegel expert Zachmann: “Therefore, a complete failure of Russian natural gas supplies over several years cannot be replaced with alternative natural gas sources, but can only be done by reducing European gas demand.” What the EU intends to do in the long term anyway: get away from fossil fuels. However, this is little consolation for the current acute bottleneck in natural gas – and not a solution.