Faced with the fifth wave of coronavirus that has swept across Europe in recent weeks, many countries are imposing restrictions only on the unvaccinated. In Germany, a vaccination pass will be necessary to access public places such as restaurants or concert halls as soon as the hospitalization threshold exceeds three Covid patients per 100,000 inhabitants, a situation which already concerns 12 out of 16 Länder.
In Sweden, the vaccination pass is required for gatherings of more than 100 people. In Latvia, employers can dismiss staff members who refuse to be vaccinated. As for Austria, the country had initially opted for confinement only of unvaccinated people, before extending it to its entire population and imposing compulsory vaccination from February 1.
Specific restrictions that Emmanuel Macron swept aside Thursday night in an interview with The voice of the North, indicating that the confinement of unvaccinated people was “not necessary in France”. For Stéphane Rozès, political scientist at the CAP (Advice, analyzes and perspectives), the president seeks above all not to divide the population a few months before the election.
Why did Emmanuel Macron insist on making it clear that there would be no new restrictions specific to the unvaccinated?
Beyond the health issue, there is obviously a political dimension to this choice. Emmanuel Macron wants to avoid appearing again after the “yellow vests” and the health pass as a president who divides society, who points to categories of the population and who puts families or territories under tension between them. He understood that this image was one of his weak points for the presidential election: like Nicolas Sarkozy he would have been a president who would have put the country under tension. It is a real risk and an easy angle of attack for the one he or she faces in the second round.
The health pass is seen as the creation of Emmanuel Macron and as one of the great successes of his policy against the coronavirus so far. Would restrictions for the unvaccinated be a sign of failure of the health pass?
It is fairly accepted in the opinion that in terms of health, the pass has been an important lever for vaccination and a success at this level. The health pass does not have much to prove in terms of health, it had the role it played and will remain a success no matter what, just like vaccination in France. All the more so with the situation in other European countries, it would be difficult to accuse the French health pass of not having worked. But the pass remains an object of division, and Emmanuel Macron does not want to further divide France between vaccinated and non-vaccinated.
Is such a measure too risky politically a few months before the election?
The political agenda is shaken up and due to the health crisis and Eric Zemmour’s breakthrough, the presidential campaign has already started. However, in campaign, Emmanuel Macron must avoid too serious or too unpopular decisions. It is rare to see a candidate president take a decision a few months before the election a heavy decision for the country, in order to avoid giving free ammunition to his opponents. Emmanuel Macron’s conduct is all the more delicate as he has to manage a recent unprecedented health crisis, he is already in a heavy and serious situation, which is not the ideal for campaigning.
Can this decision not to impose restrictions on the unvaccinated be beneficial to Emmanuel Macron?
It is the health crisis that can benefit him. It puts the country in a state of significant psychological and political fragility, but in fact the French, disoriented, are looking for stable benchmarks, which could benefit Emmanuel Macron for a re-election, the French saying to themselves that they are choosing to continuity and what they already know in uncertain times. All the more reason for Emmanuel Macron to seek to embody this stability, and therefore to make restrictions for everyone or for no one but not on a case-by-case basis, in the division.