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Election in Poland – ruling party has to tremble
Jaroslaw Kaczynski (M) speaks to his supporters during a campaign rally. photo
© Czarek Sokolowski/AP/dpa
Close race: The ruling national conservative PiS is in the lead, but the citizens’ coalition is hot on its heels. Two small parties could tip the scales.
According to surveys, the Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc (PiS, German “Law and Justice”) party is likely to remain the strongest force, but will miss the absolute majority of 231 of the 460 parliamentary seats. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki would then have to rely on the ultra-right Konfederacja to form a government. The Konfederacja rejected a coalition with the PiS during the election campaign. However, many Poles see this as a tactical step and assume that Konfederacja MPs will be lured into the PiS camp with government positions – or that the ultra-right will ultimately tolerate a PiS minority government.
A change of power is also not ruled out. According to the surveys, the liberal-conservative Citizens’ Coalition (KO) of former Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in second place, close behind the PiS. If she wins the election, she could form a coalition with the left-wing Lewica alliance and the Christian-conservative Third Way. The prerequisite for this, however, is that the Third Way, which consists of a merger of two parties, clears the eight percent threshold that applies to such electoral alliances and enters parliament. In surveys the formation is at a good ten percent.
Referendum on accepting refugees
Parallel to the parliamentary election, Poles are voting in a referendum on four questions. One of them deals with the EU asylum compromise. This stipulates that the admission of refugees should no longer be voluntary, but rather mandatory. Countries that do not want to accept refugees would be forced to make compensation payments. The PiS government rejects this.
The specific question in the Polish referendum will be: “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa under the mandatory admission mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?” The outcome of the referendum has no influence on the decision-making process. The other questions deal with the privatization of state-owned companies, the retirement age and the barrier on Poland’s border with Belarus.
The first forecasts are expected after the polls close at 9 p.m. Extrapolations are not common in Poland. The electoral commission expects the official final result to be available on Tuesday.