After the parliamentary elections in Poland, initial post-election polls show that the ruling PiS party is ahead, but is missing the absolute majority it previously enjoyed. The opposition, on the other hand, has a mathematical majority – and would therefore have clearly won the election. From the point of view of opposition leader Donald Tusk, it already has: “Poland has won! Democracy has won,” he shouted that evening at his party’s election party in the center of Warsaw.
According to the so-called exit polls, the right-wing national PiS party has 36.8 percent, compared to 43.6 percent four years ago. The PiS has been in power since 2015. According to the exit polls, Donald Tusk’s Koalicja Obywatelska (Citizens’ Coalition), which also includes the Greens and the farmers’ party Agrounia, got 31.6 percent and would have improved compared to 2019. This would give it 163 mandates and, together with the center-right Third Way alliance and the left-wing party Nowa Lewica, it could form a majority government with a total of 248 out of 460 seats in the lower house, the Sejm.
According to the voter survey, the right-wing extremist party Konfederacja would also come back into the Sejm with 6.2 percent, although with a worse result than expected in surveys. For months it had been clear in all surveys that PiS would again receive the most votes – but would have to rely on a coalition partner in the future. Only Konfederacja would be eligible for this, although both parties rejected this before the election. But if the election goes the way the exit polls suggest, then it wouldn’t be enough for either of them. Together they would only have 212 seats.
It was uncertain in advance whether the Left and the Third Way would enter parliament
In Poland there are no projections after the elections; citizens can only follow the status of the counting. Since smaller, rural constituencies are reported first, it is likely that the PiS, which has voters particularly in rural areas and smaller cities, will be ahead for a long time. In cities, the opposition is more likely to be elected.
Therefore, after the polling stations close, so-called exit polls, i.e. post-election surveys, are published. These have been considered quite reliable in recent years. However, they were completely wrong in the elections in Slovakia two weeks ago. There, the people who had chosen the election winner in particular did not want to say so in surveys.
In principle, the party with the most votes is given the task of forming a government by President Andrzej Duda. In Poland, elections are counted using the D’Hondt method. Since votes for parties that do not make it into parliament are allocated to the others, the process primarily benefits the strongest party. It was therefore considered particularly important that, in addition to the largest opposition party, the Citizens’ Coalition (KO), the smaller parties Left and Third Way also moved into the Sejm. With almost nine percent for the Left and 13 for Third Way, both have clearly achieved this goal – the three parties had already declared before the election that they wanted to work together.
The opposition recently had a majority in the Senate and was expected to be able to maintain its majority. In addition, Polish voters were called to a referendum on Sunday. Among other things, it dealt with the retirement age and the redistribution of refugees within the EU.