The CDU is the clear election winner in Hesse. Prime Minister Rhein’s party is loudly improving ARD extrapolation to almost 35 percent. The AfD is the second strongest force, ahead of the SPD and the Greens. The FDP has to tremble, the left is out.
The CDU won the state elections in Hesse with a large lead. Prime Minister Boris Rhein’s party not only emerged from the vote as the clearly strongest political force, but also made significant gains compared to 2018. Loud ARD extrapolation From Infratest dimap, the CDU comes to 34.5 percent. Five years ago it reached 27.0 percent, back then with Prime Minister Volker Bouffier.
His successor Rhein has been leading the black-green state government since May 2022, and now he had to face the vote for the first time. Despite a rather weak official bonus compared to other countries and moderate popularity ratings, Rhine was able to look forward to a largely safe election victory. In the election campaign, he and the Hesse CDU benefited from the massive dissatisfaction with the traffic light parties that support the federal government. Rhine also benefited from the weakness of the other top candidates and the lack of mood for change in the country.
In an initial reaction, Rhein spoke of a “clear government mandate” from the voters and an “incredibly great day” for the CDU. “They chose the Hesse CDU, but they also chose style and stability as well as gentle renewal.”
AfD is making significant gains
The AfD is improving significantly and could even become the second strongest force behind the CDU. According to projections, it comes to 17.7 percent, which would be its best result to date in a western German state. Five years ago it entered the state parliament in Wiesbaden for the first time with 13.1 percent.
The AfD not only benefits from the massive dissatisfaction with the traffic light parties, it also benefits from the topic situation. According to pre-election surveys, many people support a restrictive immigration policy and fear more crime and economic decline. The AfD is apparently believed to have a certain problem-solving ability here.
Debacle for SPD
The Hessian SPD achieved a disastrous election result. At 15.2 percent, it once again undercuts its negative record from 2018, when it still reached 19.8 percent.
Now it could end up in third place behind the CDU and AfD. With Nancy Faeser as the top candidate, the party had relied on federal political prominence in order to finally govern again in the former “red Hesse” after 25 years in the opposition.
The SPD was unable to score points in the election campaign with its nationally known top candidate – on the contrary: Faeser’s ministerial post in Berlin turned out to be a heavy burden, especially when the issue of migration also increasingly played a role in the state election campaign. The Federal Minister of the Interior no longer came off the defensive. Many people in Hesse also apparently resented her for only wanting to move from Berlin to Wiesbaden if she won the election. With this top candidate, the SPD was unable to present itself as a credible and competent alternative to the ruling CDU.
“We had a lot of headwind, we saw it in the polls. That’s why it’s not that surprising, but still very disappointing,” said Faeser, commenting on her party’s weak performance.
Disappointed Greens
The Greens also clearly missed their election goal. You and Tarek Al-Wazir took over the state government. Compared to the record result of 2018 (19.8 percent), they have lost and now come to 14.7 percent. They have been governing as junior partners with the CDU for ten years – whether it will stay that way remains to be seen. The SPD would also be a possible coalition partner for the CDU.
Although the Greens had a popular top candidate in Deputy Prime Minister and Economics Minister Al-Wazir, Al-Wazir has lost traction compared to 2018. The fact that federal political issues such as refugee policy, the economy and the climate overshadowed this state election as well as those in Bavaria made things even more difficult for the Greens. The Green election campaigners had to contend with massive headwinds from Berlin.
“All parties involved in the federal government had no tailwind,” said Al-Wazir in the evening. “We had to fight uphill.”
FDP not sure in, left definitely out
For the FDP, Hesse was once one of its strongholds. She has been represented in the state parliament for four decades. It is not certain whether it will stay that way. The projection puts the Liberals at 4.9 percent. Like the SPD and the Greens, the Hesse-FDP had to struggle with the traffic light penalty. In addition, she relied on a largely unknown top candidate, Stefan Naas, who was unable to develop much traction.
The Left Party missed its return to the state parliament. According to projections, it only comes to 3.0 percent, after 6.3 percent five years ago. This means that the party is only represented in two West German parliaments: in Bremen and Hamburg.
The Free Voters also missed out on entering the state parliament with 3.5 percent.
Rhine can Government partners choose
When it comes to forming a government, this means that Prime Minister Boris Rhein can not only plan for five years in the State Chancellery, but can also choose with whom he wants to govern together. Continue with the Greens or an alliance with the SPD? The FDP would also be available if it managed to get back into the state parliament. The black-green state government had recently lost support, and after ten years there was increasing tension among the partners. Rhine is also said to be closer to the FDP and SPD in terms of content.
Overall, today’s state elections in Hesse and Bavaria took place amidst a very tense atmosphere nationwide. Only a minority of people look to the future with confidence; trust in the problem-solving ability of politicians is low. Many people have economic fears, but climate change and immigration also cause concern. For these reasons, state political issues such as school policy only played a subordinate role in these elections. In total, around 4.3 million eligible voters in Hesse were called upon to cast their votes. Five years ago, voter turnout was 67.3 percent. It is now at 64.5 percent.