Election campaign in Brazil: Bolsonaro in Trump’s footsteps?

Bolsonaro against Lula: In Brazil, the president wants to be re-elected, his predecessor is striving to return to office. Polls put Lula ahead – but many wonder if Bolsonaro would accept defeat.

Officially, the election campaign only begins today, but that hasn’t stopped the candidates in Brazil from already mobilizing their supporters. In Rio de Janeiro at the weekend, evangelical rock bands picked up guitar strings and played Christian songs from truck platforms for thousands of believers who had traveled there. “Our strength comes from God and Jesus, the Redeemer,” participant Rosângela Rodrigues calls into the television cameras.

Shortly thereafter, the political part of the “March for Jesus” began in Rio’s Sambodrome: President Jair Bolsonaro appeared in front of thousands of supporters. At his side is his wife Michelle, who is primarily tasked with mobilizing female voters. And also Silas Malafaia, an influential evangelical pastor who preaches strictly conservative values ​​and has been one of Bolsonaro’s biggest supporters for years.

Take power with the voices of evangelicals

It is no coincidence that the supporters of charismatic free churches in particular are taking to the streets for Bolsonaro. They were the ones who gave him a majority in 2018. During his reign, Bolsonaro had declared that “only God could remove him from power”. But things are currently looking bleak for the former captain. According to polls, he is well behind his challenger, ex-President Lula da Silva.

Possibly because of this bleak outlook, Bolsonaro has been fueling doubts about Brazil’s electronic voting system for months. This is susceptible to fraud, he recently explained to the diplomats. However, he failed to provide evidence.

Brazil’s electoral authority TSE rejected the allegations. It has been using the electronic ballot box system since the 1990s to prevent vote-buying. Before every election, she has it publicly tested together with the Federal Police. Nevertheless, Bolsonaro repeats his allegations and also said last year that he would no longer follow the judgments of a constitutional judge if necessary.

“Moment of Immense Danger”

More and more Brazilians are defending themselves against such attacks on Brazil’s institutions. “Rule of law and democracy. Always!” reads a gigantic banner stretched across the facade of the law faculty at the University of Sao Paulo. Thousands crowd the courtyard on August 11th. They all worry about the future of the country.

According to a manifesto that will be read at universities in Rio de Janeiro, Brasilia and Belo Horizonte, Brazil is experiencing a “moment of immense danger to democratic normality.”

Goad Trump?

Even if President Bolsonaro is not named in it, it is obvious that the statement is a reaction to growing fears in the country that the far-right head of state could not accept a possible defeat in the elections in early October – and therefore incited similar scenes, as they played out in front of the US Capitol on January 6th.

“If you constantly talk about the electoral system being unsafe and warn of fraud, if you question our country’s Supreme Court and freedom of the press and call for disruption of the constitutional order, then you are attacking democracy,” says Dimas Ramalho opposite of ARD. He is an advisor to the Sao Paulo Court of Accounts and co-wrote the manifesto. It is based on a historic letter from 1977, at the time an indictment of the dark years of the military dictatorship (1964 to 1985).

Ruth Melo’s father was kidnapped and tortured at the time, and his daughter read the pro-democracy manifesto that day: “Today, dictatorship and torture are a thing of the past.” The moment has come to say basta to the President’s constant attacks.

Emilia Mota, a 20-year-old student and Lula supporter, says: “I want to live again in a country where we look to the future with hope.” The event ended with loud “Bolsonaro down” chants.

The business elite follows suit

Bolsonaro himself ridiculed the manifesto. It was a “little letter” that some “blockheads” and “communists” had written.

However, the signatories include some of the country’s most important entrepreneurs, bank officials, former Supreme Court judges, three ex-presidents and some of Brazil’s most successful artists. It is the first time that large civil society resistance has formed, which is also joined by the country’s business elite.

Reminder of boom – and corruption

Bolsonaro’s challenger, left-wing ex-president Lula da Silva, stands for a better past with a long-lasting economic boom for some Brazilians – but for many also for one of the biggest corruption scandals in Latin America. During his presidency between 2003 and 2010, Brazil was considered the country of the future: the economy was booming thanks to high raw material prices, people were looking forward to the soccer World Cup and millions managed to get out of abject poverty.

At the same time, however, corruption flourished – not only, but above all in Lula’s Labor Party.

In 2018, the ex-president himself was convicted of paying bribes and money laundering. Instead of running in the elections back then, Lula went to prison. Bolsonaro supporters cheered. Lula still speaks of a political process. Supreme Court justices overturned all sentences against the leftist ex-president in 2021 over procedural errors.

What Bolsonaro’s supporters fear

For Bolsonaro supporters, the prospect of a second presidency of Lula is dreadful. “I don’t want Brazil to become a second Venezuela,” trader Gildson Costa Santos, 58, told the ARD“I don’t want it being stolen and I don’t want the Amazon to be sold off to other countries”.

For Bolsonaro, the formal acquittal of Lula is further proof of how corrupt and partisan the Supreme Court is. When Bolsonaro was proclaimed his party’s official candidate, there was a minute-long whistle – directed against Brazil’s highest judicial authority.

“The supreme authority is the people,” Bolsonaro called out to his supporters at the time and urged them to take to the streets “one last time” on September 7th. The date should bring him impressive pictures: It is Brazil’s 200th anniversary of independence, actually a state ceremony with a military parade. However, the photos will mainly feature hundreds of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters in the national colors of green and yellow.

How is the military doing?

Among them, alternative election polls are circulating on social networks that see Bolsonaro far ahead of his challenger da Silva. “In the event of Bolsonaro’s defeat, that could incite his radical supporters,” fears Marcelo Jasmim, professor of history and political science at the Catholic University of Rio. Much will depend on how Brazil’s military behaves.

Bolsonaro has already achieved a stronger role for the armed forces in overseeing elections. Recently, military officials visited the headquarters of the Electoral Authority and inspected voting machines. So far, at least, there is nothing to suggest that the generals might support any anti-democratic actions.