A good month before the European elections, according to a new survey, the CSU can still have legitimate hopes of a result beyond the 40 percent mark: If elections were held on Sunday, the Christian Socialists could expect 43 percent of the vote – or so they have it was commissioned by the opinion research institute GMS Sat 1 Bavaria determined. That would be a good two percentage points more than in the 2019 European elections (40.7 percent) and six percentage points more than in the 2023 state elections (37.0 percent). The Greens in Bavaria would currently have to be satisfied with twelve percent, the Free Voters and the SPD with nine percent each.
The AfD has recently fallen in favor in the polls: in the new survey it is at 14 percent. That is significantly more than in the 2019 European elections (8.5 percent). However: At the turn of the year, a GMS European election survey still saw the AfD in Bavaria at 17 percent. The new Sahra Wagenknecht alliance ranks at four percent in the survey published on Tuesday.
According to the survey, more than half of Bavarians are of the opinion that, given current political and economic developments, it is more important than ever to take part in the European elections on June 9th: 56 percent answered yes to a corresponding question. On the other hand, 38 percent said that participation had not become more important. GMS surveyed a total of 1,023 eligible voters in Bavaria from April 30th to May 6th.