analysis
From 2035, combustion engines will no longer be permitted in the EU. In fact, petrol and diesel engines are currently making an astonishing comeback. The boom in electric vehicles, on the other hand, appears to be failing. Why is that?
Smart promotions, strong discounts, a prominent place in the showroom: none of this seems to catch the attention of customers. E-vehicles “made in Germany” are the slow seller at the Drechsler car dealership near Stuttgart, especially after the state e-bonus was abolished in December. Too expensive, not innovative enough, they say.
And customers simply had a lot of unanswered questions, says branch manager Frank Hettler: “Is the charging infrastructure the right one, does the vehicles do what they promise even in sub-zero temperatures? What do I do with the car when it’s older? Will I even get it still going on when I want to resell it? We’re faced with that every day.”
The abolition of the state e-bonus in December dramatically accelerated the slump in sales. There is no sign of the much-vaunted race to catch up by German manufacturers in electric cars. However: “We are feeling the boom when it comes to combustion engines,” says Hettler. “Customers explicitly want combustion engines, and also want something used, something new.”
Gloomy forecast for 2024
This is also reflected in the ADAC registration figures. 55,000 new electric cars were registered in December. That is around 47 percent less than in the same month last year. Gasoline engines, on the other hand, sell significantly better, with 31 percent of all new registrations. Even diesel comes in at 15.5 percent. And the prospects for German electric vehicles will continue to cloud over in 2024. The Association of the Automotive Industry expects a drop of 14 percent. In contrast, the association only sees a decrease of one percent in total registrations with combustion engines.
From the perspective of car expert Stefan Bratzel from the Center of Automotive Management (CAM), the reasons for this are obvious: “We still don’t have enough affordable electric models in the low vehicle segment. That won’t change dramatically in 2024 either. We don’t expect this until 2025 or 2026 “We also have affordable electric vehicles available, including from German manufacturers.”
The Chinese, on the other hand, with the MG brand are already number one in Europe in the class of electric compact cars with cost advantages of 3,000 to 5,000 euros. However, electric cars have not yet been able to establish themselves on a broad front. Bratzel therefore fears a fatal trend reversal: “We have to be careful that a renaissance of the combustion engine does not take place because a certain fatigue is setting in with electromobility.”
30 to 40 percent more expensive than the competition in Asia
Auto suppliers that rely on electromobility complain about a lack of investment, bureaucracy and a lot of hesitation. Manz AG in Reutlingen has been relying on electromobility since 2009 and has been developing innovative battery solutions for electric vehicles. But growth is low and cost pressure is enormous, as CEO Martin Drasch admits tagesschau.de says: “If we have to compete with projects that are also offered by Asian competitors, we are 30 percent to 40 percent more expensive.”
He calls for politics, car manufacturers, mechanical and plant engineering to work together when it comes to electromobility. This has been the defining factor of the German model of success over the past decades. Now it’s on the brink. Massive investments are necessary. But it’s becoming more of a hang-up. “In the worst case scenario, there will be another delay or a push through funding in the wrong place. The topic of transformation can be achieved through investments in technology and competitiveness in the production process.”
“At least as much more innovative as it is more expensive”
From the perspective of CAM expert Bratzel, the German auto industry must be at least as innovative as it is expensive when it comes to e-mobility. There is a lot of catching up to do in both areas. Frank Hattler from the Drechsler car dealership is skeptical as to whether this will be possible in the lower price segment in the short term. That’s exactly where he feels the demand for electric cars.
And so older people in particular continue to turn to combustion engines, as he says. Everything is still much simpler: “I hold the fuel tank, fill it up in five minutes, pay, drive away. With an electric vehicle it’s much more complicated.”