As of: 01/12/2023 6:00 p.m
The virologist Christian Drosten explains in the coronavirus update from NDR Info why the pandemic is not quite over yet, but he expects the transition to an endemic phase and which factors could still influence it.
The Podcast Coronavirus Update is back. After a break of almost ten months, Christian Drosten, head of virology at the Berlin Charité, is again talking about the current situation and the outlook for the future with Sars-CoV-2. With cautiously positive prospects.
Pandemic or endemic?
In doing so, he also clears up some misunderstandings. He expects that we are currently on the verge of becoming endemic. But you can only say that with certainty in retrospect. “I don’t want to make any announcements or declare anything over, but of course I can say what I expect,” he said podcast. A small, but significant difference.
What is certain is that, globally, people get sick less often and less severely. Here, too, you can see the so-called white lung, a sign of particularly serious illnesses, much less frequently in the intensive care units, says the virologist. This is probably mainly due to the fact that omicron variants ensure less severe courses.
Other developments also indicated that the current pandemic was moving in the direction of an endemic, said Drosten. In the beginning, one could observe erratic mutations of the variants of the virus, which then also became the dominant variants. Now the development is more gradual. The dominant variants are further developments of the immediately dominant ones. That speaks for an endemic situation.
Despite all the optimistic prospects: Measures such as masks could still help to protect older or previously ill people, also out of consideration in places such as local public transport. And if, contrary to expectations, the situation worsens again and there are more and more severe cases, this could become necessary again in many areas of life.
The situation in China
specifically in China however, there is still a long way to go before the situation calms down. There are more infections there than at any time since the outbreak of the pandemic. Meanwhile, Christian Drosten does not share the great concern about the variants currently circulating in China. Because, at least at the moment, variants are apparently circulating there that many people in other countries are already immune to.
However, since more people are becoming infected there again overall, this could lead to new variants that are also dangerous for other populations. Because the more the virus spreads, the more opportunities it has to become more dangerous again through mutations.
You can imagine it a bit like a child’s game in which marbles have to be transported into certain holes on a board by tilting it. “Everything is almost settled and then someone comes and hits the board from below and a few balls fly up again. Then it can be that in the end, when these balls have come to rest again, they are in other holes after all “Drosten explained. So it remains to be seen whether there will be new, worrying variants in the future. There is currently no concrete evidence for this.
XBB.1.5.: Dominant variant from the USA
One variant, which has certainly caused a lot of discussion at the moment, comes from a completely different continent, namely the USA. the Variant XBB.1.5. is spreading there and will probably become the dominant variant by February. According to the WHO, it is still regionally limited to the USA, but now also occurs in other countries. Drosten expects that it will also spread in Europe.
Because XBB.1.5. Due to a previously known mutation, it is particularly good at evading the antibodies that provide the body’s first defense against the virus. This mutation was previously associated with less good transmissibility. However, an additional mutation has now arisen at the corresponding point in the genome, which can improve the transferability of the omicron subtype. So a new wave can also come with us.
The fact that this variant is probably also spreading to us is no reason for alarm at first, says Drosten. “Because of the biology, we don’t have to assume that we suddenly have a very serious disease here that is spreading rapidly among the population, but first of all we have a pathogen. And that’s a big difference,” he says in the podcast . Because how seriously someone actually falls ill is not only determined by the antibodies that do the first defense against the virus, but also by the T cells present in the body. And these are a reliable result of vaccination and previous infections, they are not affected by the mutations of the virus.
Overall, thanks to population immunity, many people now have good protection against serious illnesses.
Booster is worth it – especially for the elderly and those who have previously been ill
Christian Drosten therefore also advises people who were not infected with the corona virus in 2022 or the young 2023 to use a booster. This is especially true for older people or people with previous illnesses.
Whether it will be necessary to be vaccinated once a year in the future is not yet entirely foreseeable. For older people in particular, such a scenario, similar to the annual flu vaccinations, is initially conceivable: “Because we have to help the immunity of the elderly with the vaccine. That’s what we want. We want to save lives with a vaccination,” said Drosten.
Germany got through the pandemic well
Overall, Germany has come through the pandemic relatively well so far, says virologist Drosten in retrospect, especially if you look at the total numbers for so-called excess mortality. In the first wave in particular, relatively few people died in Germany. “That was because we didn’t start these measures particularly ruthlessly, but rather early on,” said Drosten.
Misinformation about vaccinations and demands from people who are often unfamiliar with the subject – including from science – have led to confusion among the population, especially in Germany. As a result, the vaccination rate in Germany is still not as high as in other countries. Measures should therefore have been maintained longer than in other countries such as Great Britain or Denmark.
Still some questions open
There is still a need for research on Covid. Because even if the cases will decrease at some point: What long-term consequences Sars-CoV-2 will cause is far from clear. And only time will tell what can happen if variants of the virus jump from animals back to humans. Christian Drosten sees this as an important research topic for virology. For now, however, we can look to the future with cautious optimism.
Further information
