From our correspondent in the United States,
It’s almost a vote for nothing. On Tuesday, Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary and consolidated his status as favorite to win the Republican nomination and challenge Joe Biden on November 5. But Nikki Haley did a little better than expected, notably by dominating her opponent among independent voters – who will play a crucial role in November – and she assured that her campaign “was only just beginning”. Even if she says she wants to continue at least until Super Tuesday, which will see a third of the states vote on March 5, History is implacable: a candidate who won Iowa and New Hampshire has always won the nomination of Republican Party.
Donald Trump wins his face-to-face without killing the match
After Ron DeSantis dropped out, it was the first duel of the primary between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. In this face-to-face match, the former president won by around 11 points, with 55% of the votes against 44% for Haley, according to non-definitive figures. This is a gap twice as small as during his victory in 2016 against half a dozen candidates who had divided the anti-Trump vote.
“We have won New Hampshire three times now,” said the former president, in front of his supporters chanting “USA, USA”. He mocked Nikki Haley “for saying she needed to win but lost.” Surrounded by ex-candidates Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy, Donald Trump played the unification card and wants to turn towards his probable duel against Joe Biden.
The race is “just beginning,” replies Nikki Haley
Like a good politician, Nikki Haley hurried to speak at the start of the counting, when the gap was only 7 points. According to her, “the race has only just begun”, and the voters of South Carolina – of which she was governor – who will vote on February 24 “do not want a coronation but an election”.
His problem is that no state will be as favorable to him as New Hampshire. According to estimates from the polls, nearly half of the voters who voted were independents, who identify as neither Republican nor Democrat, and Haley won over almost two in three. Opposite, Donald Trump crushed it among the Republicans, with three out of four voting for him.
Haley therefore believes that she is best placed to beat Biden: “A nomination of Donald Trump is synonymous with a victory for Joe Biden and a presidency of Kamala Harris,” she insisted, seeming to imply that the American president, who will turn 82 in November, would not be able to complete a second term.
A Trump nomination almost assured
“Nikki Haley has slightly outperformed compared to recent polls, but it remains a defeat”, estimates for 20 minutes former Republican Party spokesman Doug Heye. According to him, “the party will continue to rally around Donald Trump, and Haley will be under pressure to drop out. » Tuesday evening, the influential Republican senator John Cornyn, who is far from being a Trumpist, notably lined up behind the former president.
“Second place is last place in a duel,” quips Brett Marson, Republican consultant in Arizona. “There’s no logical reason for it to continue, but some people like suicide missions.”
What is certain is that Nikki Haley has enough money to continue her campaign for a month. But if she doesn’t take off in the polls in South Carolina, she could throw in the towel before the end of February, and thus avoid the humiliation of a defeat at home.