From our correspondent in the United States,
A MAGA wave has indeed swept through the Iowa caucus. Monday evening, Donald Trump, as predicted by the polls, crushed the first round of the Republican primaries, surpassing the symbolic 50% mark and confirming more than ever his status as favorite to win the nomination and face Joe Biden in the presidential election from November 5. By finishing 2nd, at 21%, Ron DeSantis avoids absolute humiliation and continues – for the moment – his campaign, unlike Vivek Ramaswamy who threw in the towel to line up behind Trump. Third at 19%, Nikki Haley is betting everything on New Hampshire next week, where she hopes to follow on the heels of, and raise doubts about, the former president. Here are the main lessons of the evening.
Donald Trump emerges as boss
After months of campaigning, the ballot boxes have spoken. Not only does Donald Trump exceed the absolute majority, around 51%, but the former president almost achieved a solid victory, winning in all but one of Iowa’s counties – 98 out of 99. Before Trump, the most The biggest score for a Republican was 41% (George W. Bush in 2000), and the largest margin for a runner-up had never exceeded 13 points.
“I think now is the time for everyone, for our country to come together […]. Whether it’s Republicans or Democrats or liberals or conservatives,” said the former president, who is already looking towards November 5 and a probable rematch against Joe Biden. The latter also reacted on X: “Donald Trump is the clear favorite of the other camp”, judged Joe Biden, calling for donations to fight “against extreme MAGA Republicans”.
Ron DeSantis saves the furniture and his campaign (for now)
“The media had already written our obituary […] Everyone was against us, but we punched our ticket in Iowa,” said Ron DeSantis. Relegated to 30 points behind Donald Trump, the governor of Florida had bet everything on Iowa and has the only satisfaction of having beaten Nikki Haley. His teams denounced “the irresponsibility of the media”, which projected Donald Trump’s victory after 30 minutes, while many counties were still voting. His campaign continues, but the future promises to be very difficult: DeSantis hopes to survive the next three elections (New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) and bounce back on Super Tuesday on March 5, in more favorable states.
Solid 3rd, Nikki Haley bets big on New Hampshire
Nikki Haley, who is courting moderate votes, had almost skipped Iowa. But with her tremor in the polls and the support of billionaire Charles Koch, the former governor of South Carolina began to dream. At 19%, she is where we expected her to be, but she would undoubtedly have preferred to get ahead of DeSantis to embody the only alternative to Donald Trump. Next week, she should do significantly better in New Hampshire. Polls place her a dozen points behind Donald Trump, and she could take advantage of Chris Christie’s abandonment to put pressure on the former president before a home battle in South Carolina.
This is only the first vote
Donald Trump should win around 20 delegates out of the 40 at stake in Iowa, compared to 8 for DeSantis and 7 for Haley. A drop in the ocean, while the bar to ensure the nomination to the convention this summer is set at 1,215. “49% of voters in a conservative evangelical state did not support Donald Trump. There is a shooting window, but only for a single opponent,” judges for 20 minutes Doug Heye. “Nikki Haley had almost no field structure in Iowa. Her result is therefore interesting, but she will at least need to follow Donald Trump in New Hampshire,” believes this former spokesperson for the Republican Party. It remains to be seen whether Nikki Haley will dare to attack Donald Trump head-on in the legal field. According to polls coming out of the polls, one in 3 Iowa Republicans believes that the primary favorite would be “unfit to be president” if he were criminally convicted by the courts.