Emmanuel Macron and Jean Castex Wednesday morning on the terrace of a cafe. – AFP
- Two days after the start of deconfinement, Emmanuel Macron and Jean Castex see their popularity clearly improve in a BVA poll.
- If, at 42% of good opinions, the executive couple is still far from being popular, the two previous presidents were less well off at the same time of their mandates.
- It is anyway too early to talk about any deconfinement effect, which would be destroyed at the slightest resurgence of the epidemic, and too early to draw conclusions about the presidential election.
A swallow doesn’t make spring, says the expression. But a pint on the terrace after seven months of abstinence? Friday morning, the BVA polling institute published its popularity ratings for the month of May: Emmanuel Macron and Jean Castex are both up sharply, with 42% of favorable opinion. Two days after the reopening of non-essential shops, bars and restaurants and the implementation of the curfew at 9 p.m., we would quickly have made the connection.
A popularity rating is best appreciated by averaging the different polling institutes, so we will have to wait to see if it is solid. Nevertheless, “BVA confirms what we already saw last month, that is to say a small progression of two three points”, reminds to 20 minutes the Ifop researcher, Paul Cébille. Nothing miraculous however: with around 40% of favorable opinions, “there is no largely positive judgment of the action of the Head of State”, specifies, full of euphemism, the pollster.
Not a very good popularity in absolute terms, but no collapse with the crisis
“The president is credited with the decision to deconfin, but if the epidemic resumes this summer, it will evaporate”, warns Bruno Cautrès, researcher at Cévipof interviewed by 20 minutes. Emmanuel Macron himself has already known it: an upturn in popularity had already affected him in the summer of 2020, during the first deconfinement, before disappearing at the start of the school year. “The popularity of the president is the yoyo between 35 and 40% for months”, notes the researcher who adds that the head of state keeps a very polarized image.
If these 40-42% popularity are not very good figures in absolute terms, far behind the scores of neighboring heads of state or government in the midst of a pandemic, Paul Cébille nevertheless analyzes that he does not There is no “collapse” in the popularity of the executive. The pollster reminds that on the same date of their mandates Nicolas Sarkozy and even more François Hollande were much lower in the polls. A good omen less than a year from the presidential election?
The health crisis blurs the tracks
Not so sure. The particular context (so little!) For more than a year must invite observers to be careful with comparisons, believes Bruno Cautrès: “The paradox is that this crisis has totally obscured the economic and social agenda and reforms. To compare properly we would have to go back to the polls just before the crisis, but today it is hazardous. “
Even without the collapse of the popularity of the Head of State, the rest of the figures are mixed: the judgment of the French and French women surveyed with regard to the management of the crisis remains negative. On the vaccination strategy, confidence in the government has gained ten points in one month but is still not in the majority. Above all, still according to the BVA survey, the French seem confident about the success of deconfinement, even two-thirds: “It is twelve points more than during the first deconfinement, the government is perceived as better prepared. », Remarks Paul Cébille.
“Churchill Syndrome”
In fact, Emmanuel Macron seems above all to benefit from a renewed optimism in public opinion, which may be saying to itself that the crisis is on the way to really being over. The head of state, at the helm, garners some dividends. Be careful not to be too part of the page that the French will soon want to turn. It is the “Churchill syndrome”, which we hear regularly lately. A reference – very flattering – to the British winner of the Second World War who nevertheless lost, and largely, the legislative elections organized in July 1945 in the United Kingdom.
Even if the results of the pandemic will not be easy to defend, thinks Paul Cébille, the pollster warns us: “Be careful not to overestimate this problem compared to others, the French will not decide on a single subject. Not to mention that the worst of the economic crisis may be yet to come. Suddenly, Bruno Cautrès also plays it safe: “We are still almost a year away from the presidential election, we are still far from knowing the full cast. After the regional it will begin to settle. We must always remember that in politics, the only swallow that matters is that of the spring of the elections.