At Caren Miosga FDP General Secretary Djir-Sarai speaks of a “new dimension” in the conflict between Iran and Israel. He believes it is realistic that there will be further attacks by militias from Lebanon and Yemen.
On the ARD talk show Caren Miosga FDP General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai explained on Sunday evening that Iran’s latest attack on Israel was the consequence of a failed Iran policy by the federal government and the EU: “Focusing on the nuclear agreement with Iran was a big mistake.” They ignored the fact that the Iranians had also set up their own missile program.
It is precisely these rockets and drones that are currently being used in Ukraine, most recently against Israel. “The Iran strategy of the last few years has been extremely naive in Europe and Germany,” said the FDP politician.
Regarding Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s statement, Djir-Sarai criticized her appeal to both sides to exercise restraint and not to escalate the situation further. “I find this formulation remarkable,” says Djir-Sarai. According to him, it was clear who the aggressor was: the hostility came from Iran.
Djir-Sarai sees Iran as responsible
According to the FDP politician, the Islamic Republic is responsible for the recent escalation of the conflict. He therefore rejects equating Israel with the authoritarian regime.
Several members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were killed in an attack on the Iranian embassy compound in the Syrian capital Damascus at the beginning of April. Among those killed was Brigadier General Mohammed Resa Sahedi.
Iran and its allies have blamed Israel for the attack. A reaction from Tehran had long been expected. The recent Iranian missile attack was the expected response to the military strike in Damascus.
Middle East expert sees no reason for escalation
Political scientist Guido Steinberg represented Caren Miosga the view that Iran’s attack with more than 300 missiles and drones on Sunday night was not a serious attempt to overcome Israel’s missile defenses. The wave of attacks was not sufficient for this, said Steinberg.
“I think that was the Iranian government’s calculation. The Iranian regime wanted to send a strong message, especially to its own clientele.” But the Iranian military did not want to cause any real damage, according to the Middle East expert at the Science and Politics Foundation.
A seven-year-old girl was seriously injured in the attack. There were no fatalities. The vast majority of the rockets were intercepted by Israeli air defense.
The attack was therefore more of a signal to the Israelis and Americans, who had been warned beforehand and were therefore able to prevent something worse from happening, said Steinberg. Hezbollah is an example of this tactic. This only provokes enough that no serious military conflict arises from it.
The Middle East expert therefore does not expect Israel to retaliate: “Nothing has happened that would force the Netanyahu government to attack Iran directly.” A meeting of the Israeli War Cabinet in Jerusalem ended inconclusively on Sunday. Further meetings are to be held to discuss an appropriate response to the Iranian attack.
Djir-Sarai speaks of a “new dimension”
FDP General Secretary Djir-Sarai, however, sees a new level of escalation in the Middle East conflict: “The step is unusual. It is a new dimension.” So far, Iran has waged its war primarily through proxy militias in Lebanon and Yemen.
Djir-Sarai questioned the claim that the Iranians did not mean to cause harm. According to him, the goal of the Iranian armed forces was to test defenses to identify weak points.
The FDP politician does not believe that Iran will continue its attack, but he believes it is realistic that the militias in Yemen and Hezbollah will resume fighting. Middle East expert Steinberg, on the other hand, expects a timely preventive strike by the Israelis against Hezbollah. This is actually the more dangerous weapon of the Iranian regime.
Warning of American withdrawal
In the broadcast, Steinberg warned of a US withdrawal from the region: “It is a sign that an era is coming to an end, that of US dominance in the region – and perhaps also its end as a superpower.”
FDP politician Djir-Sarai also sees the end of the US intervention policy in the Middle East: “America will concentrate on East Asia and on China as a systemic rival.” That means that Europeans have to get more involved.
The FDP politician is therefore calling for a stronger role for the EU and Germany in resolving the Middle East conflict: “We don’t always have to wait for the Americans. We as Europeans can also say: ‘We want a different policy.'” He is optimistic that this commitment would lead to long-term success and the Islamic Republic in Iran would not last.
However, the FDP General Secretary does not want to discuss direct military intervention in the current conflict: “No one in the Near or Middle East expects military support from us,” said Djir-Sarai. “The Israelis alone would be very grateful if we started to understand this region.”