“Dexit”: Why Germany’s exit from the EU is unlikely

“Dexit”
Alice Weidel flirts with Germany’s exit from the EU: Why this is a specious maneuver

In an interview, AfD leader Alice Weidel brings Germany’s exit from the EU into play. But a look at the Basic Law shows that there are high hurdles for a “Dexit” based on the British model.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel described Great Britain’s departure from the EU (Brexit) as “absolutely right” in an interview with the “Financial Times”. Weidel spoke in the “Financial Times” about the EU’s democratic deficits and announced that the AfD would want to curtail the powers of the EU Commission if it were to participate in government. If EU reform in the spirit of the AfD is not possible, one should think about leaving. “We could hold a referendum on the ‘Dexit’ – a German exit from the EU,” said the AfD federal spokeswoman.

In 2016, Great Britain voted on “Brexit”. At that time, 52 percent of the Brits who took part voted to leave the EU and 48 percent voted to remain in the EU. Great Britain’s exit took place in 2020 – with far-reaching consequences. So far, Brexit has reduced economic output by six percent, which is equivalent to 140 billion pounds (163 billion euros) annually, London Mayor Sadiq Khan recently said. “It is obvious that Brexit is not working,” said Khan, who commissioned the study from the consulting firm Cambridge Econometrics. According to surveys, there is now a real “Brexit hangover” in Great Britain The Guardian had recently reported again.

Nevertheless, according to the Financial Times, Weidel says about Brexit: “It is a model for Germany that you can make such a sovereign decision.” What Weidel omits: A referendum on Europe is currently not planned in Germany. And the way there is paved with numerous, high hurdles that even the AfD cannot easily clear, as Weidel suggests in the “FTD” interview.

But okay, let’s play through the scenario:

Problem 1: Referendums in the Basic Law

The “Parliamentary Council”, the founding fathers of the Basic Law, were extremely cautious when it came to referendums due to their experiences during the Nazi era. The Basic Law only provides for a referendum at the federal level in one case: when reorganizing federal states. If the AfD, as Weidel outlines, wants to initiate a referendum on Germany’s exit from the EU, the Basic Law would first have to be changed.

Issue 2: Constitutional amendment

Although the party is currently polling at around 20 percent, the scenario of an absolute majority for the AfD in the coming federal election still sounds somewhat crazy. But even then the road to a change in the Basic Law would still be long. In order to change the constitution, which would be necessary for a referendum on the “Dexit” issue, the AfD would need a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag and Bundesrat. It is hard to imagine that sufficient numbers of members of the CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP and Left would support such a demand in the Bundestag.

Likewise in the Federal Council: Even if the AfD wins all three state elections in 2024 in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, it will still only govern in three of sixteen federal states. The path to a two-thirds majority is even further here than in the Bundestag.

Problem 3: German attitudes towards the EU

All very, very unlikely! But okay, just assume that the Bundestag and Bundesrat had actually changed the Basic Law and cleared the way for a referendum on Germany’s exit from the EU. Then it would still not be clear what Germans would ultimately decide on in a referendum. Because according to the survey “Eurobarometer” from December 2023 A majority in Germany has a positive attitude towards the EU: “For 68 percent of Germans, the European Union is a place of stability in a restless world,” according to one result of the survey.

Conclusion on Alice Weidel’s suggestion

In summary: No matter how Alice Weidel dreams of Germany leaving the EU, the probability of such a referendum is practically zero. And the AfD co-chairwoman probably knows that all too well.

Sources:“Law on the procedure for referendums, referendums and referendums in accordance with Article 29 Paragraph 6 of the Basic Law (G Article 29 Paragraph 6)”, “Eurobarometer: Germans view the EU positively”, “The Guardian” on the Brexit survey.

with DPA