BERLIN — It was a scene that has played out on city squares across Europe for months: jarring eyewitness accounts of the war in Ukraine, a call to arms against colonial conquest and heartfelt appeals for the public to help.
Yet there was one important difference: The participants at this rally in Berlin late last month weren’t flying the Ukrainian colors, but those of the breakaway Kremlin-backed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. The target of their dark warnings was not Russia, but the United States.
“A clear line has emerged in recent years with a permanent destruction of democratic rights and a march towards fascism,” Klaus Hartmann, a leader of the socialist Freethinkers League, told his audience, lamenting that Germany had become little more than a “vassal” of the U.S. on Ukraine and other fronts. “These two republics have the same rights NATO claims for its own clientele, namely the free choice to choose their alliance.”
It would be tempting to dismiss such sentiments as the ramblings of the political fringe (especially since the gathering in question was organized by Germany’s small Communist party). But as the war in Ukraine drags on and Europeans increasingly feel the burden of higher energy prices and a slowing economy, the fringe is rapidly creeping toward the center.
Just how rapidly became clear in recent days as thousands of demonstrators from the far right and left took to the streets in the Czech Republic and Germany to protest against rising energy prices, NATO and Western support for Ukraine. In Prague alone, an estimated 70,000 demonstrators took part in a protest in the city center on Saturday. Thousands of others convened in the German cities of Leipzig and Magdeburg on Monday, heeding calls by extremist parties to reprise the civil unrest that brought down East Germany’s communist dictatorship.
“NATO has managed to do everything wrong in connection with Ukraine and Russia that one could do wrong,” said Gregor Gysi, the former leader of the European Left party, to enthusiastic applause in Leipzig.
The gathering storm is confronting Europe’s leaders with the difficult truth that even as Russia struggles on the battlefield against Ukraine, the Kremlin is holding its own in its long-running war against Europe’s democratic foundation.
Russia has worked to undermine public trust in democratic governments for years with a toxic cocktail of social media disinformation and political subterfuge, primarily through its support for the very fringe elements now fomenting the protest movements. The main goal of these efforts is not to convert Europeans into supporters of Russia (though the Kremlin would welcome that), but rather to polarize and destabilize Western politics to such a degree that voters don’t know what to believe.
“There’s no question that Putin is winning in this regard,” said a senior Commission official.
Winter will be long
The official pointed to the political upheaval in Bulgaria, where President Rumen Radev last month pushed a caretaker government he appointed to negotiate a new gas supply deal with Gazprom. While the move triggered street protests by those opposed to maintaining Bulgaria’s energy dependence on Moscow, many in the country, which has deep cultural and historical ties to Russia, welcomed it.
A similar picture has emerged in Hungary, where Viktor Orbán, the EU’s perennial bête noire, has made it clear that he has no intention of severing all ties to Russia. This week, Orbán, who has said Ukraine can’t win the war, threatened to block the renewal of some European sanctions on Russia if three oligarchs aren’t taken off the list.
The Hungarian leader quickly backed down, but in a few weeks, Orbán’s antics might be the least of Europe’s worries. European Union leaders are bracing for the results of Italy’s election at the end of the month, with far-right parties projected to win enough support to form a coalition. The Italian election could be a “game changer” for Europe, the senior Commission official warned.
ITALY NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS
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Though Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the post-fascist Brothers of Italy party, which is expected to win the election, has been critical of the Russian invasion and supports military aid for Ukraine, her likely coalition includes some of Europe’s most Putin-friendly politicians, such as Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League, and Silvio Berlusconi, the three-time prime minister who once gifted Putin a duvet with a life-sized image of the two of them shaking hands.
Whether Meloni, who in 2018 celebrated Putin’s reelection as “the unequivocal will of the Russian people,” will maintain her stance on Russia in face of public pressure for a softer approach is far from certain.
Even though Europeans broadly rejected Russia’s narrative in the face of the horrors it has inflicted on Ukraine, polling across the region suggests that their resolve is weakening. In the region’s biggest countries (Germany, France, the U.K. and Poland), residents are now more worried about the cost of living than the war, according to YouGov poll published this month. In France, 40 percent of the population would support a return of the Yellow Jackets movement, raucous weekly protests that erupted in 2018 to push for what organizers called “economic justice.”
Against that backdrop, it looks inevitable that European leaders will face increasing pressure to ease sanctions against Russia. Time — not to mention the weather — is on Moscow’s side. As temperatures drop in the coming weeks and months as winter approaches, Europeans will begin to feel the brunt of surging natural gas prices, which have nearly trebled over the past year.
While the sanctions aren’t the only factor driving energy prices higher, they have played a role, especially when it comes to Moscow’s decision to choke off the flow of natural gas to Europe, which previously accounted for more than one-third of the EU’s supply.
An ominous reminder of that reality came on social media this week with a video showing a Gazprom worker switching off a gas valve followed by scenes of a windswept snowscape and European capitals, including Brussels. It isn’t clear who posted the video, which is set to the tune of the Russian folk song “Winter Will Be Long,” but the message is clear.
‘Danger to the whole world’
For now, Europe’s leaders remain united on sanctions, but cracks in that support are becoming more evident by the day.
In countries with strong populist movements, the anti-sanctions front has been gathering steam for weeks. In Austria, where the pro-Russia, far-right Freedom Party is a powerful force, 40 percent of the population doesn’t support EU sanctions against Moscow, according to a poll released in late August. Even the ruling center-right People’s Party is split, with powerful regional leaders openly questioning the federal government’s continued support for the measures.
“Nothing is etched in stone,” Thomas Stelzer, the governor of the province of Upper Austria, said recently, suggesting it would be necessary to reevaluate the country’s sanctions stance if “we are inflicting massive damage on our own lives.”
In Italy, public opposition to the sanctions is even stronger, with 51 percent of the population in favor of lifting them to relieve the economic pressures, according to a Termometro Politico survey released on Saturday. On Sunday, the League’s Salvini — who once posted a picture of himself standing on Moscow’s Red Square in a Putin T-shirt — called on the West to rethink its Russia sanctions.
For Putin’s purposes, a Europe that is anti-sanctions is just as good as one that is pro-Russia.
That explains Russia’s efforts in recent days to blame the gas shutdown on Western sanctions, which analysts say are succeeding in slowly throttling the country’s economy, even as it continues to enjoy windfall profits from the sale of oil. Putin admitted as much on Wednesday, calling the West’s tactics a “danger to the whole world.”
“I’m talking about the sanctions rush in the West and the West’s blatantly aggressive attempts to impose their modus vivendi on other countries, to take away their sovereignty, to submit them to their will,” Putin told a business gathering at Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.
Beyond sanctions, Europe is increasingly divided on how far to go to support Ukraine financially and box in Russia. In Western Europe, 40 percent of the population supports sending arms and funding to Ukraine, according to a survey published this week by Open Society Foundations. While that’s higher than in other parts of the world, it’s far from a clear majority.
While support for Ukraine on that front remains strongest in the Baltics and Poland, many policymakers in Western Europe continue to urge caution, especially when it comes to military aid.
President Emmanuel Macron caused a stir last week with a lengthy foreign policy speech in which he called for European unity on Ukraine, while also warning against heeding the calls of “warmongers,” a reference many in Central and Eastern Europe felt was aimed in their direction.
‘Hot autumn of protest’
Nowhere is the Ukraine debate more emotional — or more consequential — than in Germany. For Ukraine, the continued support of Europe’s economic and political heavyweight in its fight is essential.
Moscow knows that too, which is why it has put so much effort into muddying the waters there, apparently with some success. Nearly 80 percent of Germans believe the West should sue for peace in Ukraine, according to an RTL poll released last week. And more than 60 percent say their government should not send additional heavy weapons, such as howitzers (Berlin has so far delivered 10), to the country.
A more immediate concern, however, is the economic impact of the war. Though about half of Germans say they’re prepared to weather more economic hardship to support Ukraine, the other half is skeptical. Two-thirds predict that Germany’s solidarity with Ukraine will dissipate as prices continue to rise.
If that turns out to be true, Germany’s political fringe will be back on the streets, looking to capitalize on the shift in sentiment with calls for the opening of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline and an end to the war. While the Kremlin’s loyalists in the German parliament — the Left party and Alternative for Germany — have fundamental disagreements over politics, they are united in their opposition to the war and affinity for Russia. And though the crisis has yet to boost their poll numbers, both parties see opportunity in exploiting the growing malaise.
Monday’s demonstration in Leipzig, which according to police drew about 4,000 participants, was only the beginning, said Left party chief Martin Schirdewan, who in recent weeks has vowed to stoke a “heisser Herbst” (hot autumn) of protest.
That may prove to be little more than empty bravado, but Germany’s three-party coalition, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, was worried enough to push through a €65 billion emergency aid package after an all-night negotiation. Whether that will assuage Germans’ economic angst is uncertain, however. Economists predict the rise in inflation will cost Germans an additional €200 billion in the coming year, suggesting the package could fall well short.
Last week, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock experienced firsthand just how agitated her compatriots have become over Ukraine. Speaking at an event in Prague, Baerbock signaled unflinching support for Kyiv. “If I give the promise to people in Ukraine, ‘We stand with you as long as you need us,’ then I want to deliver no matter what my German voters think,” she said.
Her remarks, delivered in English, caused an immediate uproar, however, in particular the suggestion that she would defy the will of her own voters. Russian bots and trolls immediately seized on the flap, skewing Baerbock’s message to cast her as arrogant and disloyal.
Ukrainian officials are keenly aware of the importance of keeping Europe, and particularly Germany, onboard. “The West understands that if Russia wins in Ukraine, the West will be the next,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Austria’s ORF broadcaster on Tuesday, responding to a question about the West’s resolve. “We’re in the same boat.”
Yet so far, most European leaders, including Germany’s Scholz, are failing to keep the public convinced of that argument.
If Europeans really believed their own security was at stake, they wouldn’t be pushing for peace or demonstrating against the war. They’d be asking their leaders to send Ukraine more weapons.