Hollywood has always had a short memory. Industry analysts will predict doom for the future of cinema for months, then exult when a new release defies expectations. This summer has been no exception: A few blockbusters such as The Flash and Indiana Jones underperformed, and hand-wringing quickly ensued. But last weekend brought a colossal turnaround, thanks to Barbenheimer—the head-to-head releases of Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. The two films are diametrically different, auteur-driven works that doubled their individual expected grosses and together fueled the fourth-biggest opening weekend in history. The summer could be saved! And yet, with actor and writer strikes ongoing, studios seem almost hell-bent on dashing any chance at real industry momentum.
The strategy of pitting Barbie against Oppenheimer initially seemed risky. But the disparity between Gerwig’s hot-pink, brand-name comedy and Nolan’s R-rated, three-hour biographical epic generated its own hype. In the end, Barbie opened to $162 million and Oppenheimer to $82 million—the former is a record for a film directed by a woman, and Nolan landed his biggest weekend ever for a non-Batman movie.
This is a huge, heartening success for the film industry, after months of commercially unimpressive sequels. More than anything, it’s a clear sign that audiences are hungry for good products. Blockbusters aren’t obsolete, but studios can’t just rely on the latest franchise entry; some established players (such as DC Comics and Fast & Furious) are starting to lose their luster. Barbie and Oppenheimer earned their audiences’ fervor by getting positive reviews and offering something truly compelling: Barbie is very funny and joyous to see with a crowd; Oppenheimer is visually overwhelming and boosting its sales on large, premium screens such as IMAX. Both films got Grade A CinemaScores, a good indicator of word of mouth, so the box office should remain healthy through August.
Still, there’s trouble around the corner, the first example of which also came last weekend. Challengers, a fun and frothy-looking romantic tennis dramedy starring Zendaya, changed its release date from September 15 to April 26 of next year, canceling its planned release at the Venice Film Festival. The film, directed by Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name), was going to get a splashy push in theaters from MGM, but the Screen Actors Guild strike means that Zendaya and her co-stars might not be able to promote it, which would create difficulties for a project reliant on star power.
Several other projects have already been delayed because of the strike, including A24’s indie comedy Problemista, Lionsgate’s inspirational drama White Bird, and a Dirty Dancing sequel. But the real dominoes could fall next, with rumors brewing that Warner Bros. might punt its biggest upcoming releases—Dune Part Two, The Color Purple, and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom—off the 2023 calendar. Other big movies planned for the fall include Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, superhero entry The Marvels, and a Hunger Games prequel, all of which will need stars on the press circuit to propel their sales. (The casts of Barbie and Oppenheimer did many of their media interviews before they went on strike.)
A crisis isn’t just brewing; it’s here. Every day that movie studios don’t resume negotiations with SAG and the Writers Guild of America jeopardizes the future of Hollywood. Much of the existential anxiety about cinema was exacerbated by the years of delays that COVID created: More films were distributed to streaming services, and audiences got used to viewing new releases at home. Now people are comfortable going to the movies again, and the Barbenheimer phenomenon is reminding theatergoers of all ages of the value of a big-screen experience. Not capitalizing on that energy would be a catastrophic mistake.
Yet it seems to be a mistake that the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (the loose trade association representing major studios) is willing to make. The WGA has been on strike for 84 days, with no sign of negotiations resuming anytime soon. A Deadline article citing an anonymous “top-tier producer” predicted that the studios would allow the standoff to last at least until October. The AMPTP pushed back, claiming that it was “committed to reaching a deal.” Regardless, the reporting underlined how toxic the dynamic between the WGA and the studios has become; residuals, the use of generative AI, and the sharing of streaming data are all significant points of disagreement.
The entertainment industry has weathered many WGA strikes over the years, but SAG’s action was more surprising and immediately influential, basically shutting down all major movie productions and affecting future release calendars. Many of the same issues, particularly streaming residuals and AI, are at stake in both sets of negotiations, which is probably why the AMPTP is loath to strike a quick bargain with SAG—it is aware that the WGA could use that as leverage. Instead, Hollywood honchos seem committed to a death spiral, unsure of how to drive a deal beyond inflicting punishment both on the unions and on themselves.
At this point, almost any delay in resolving the strikes could be borderline apocalyptic for the film industry. If the studios hold off on negotiations for months, trying to force the unions to desperation, those studios’ products will end up being held from cinemas, overall ticket sales will plummet, and what might have been Hollywood’s best chance at reaching pre-pandemic levels of success will slip away. Barbie and Oppenheimer will continue to sell tickets, yes, and a few action films in August (Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Meg 2) should enjoy modest success, but all of the corporate back-patting about the box office going on right now will be quickly forgotten. Hollywood just got its clearest confirmation since 2019 that movies can still draw an in-person audience. It would be a good idea to keep releasing them.