Coronavirus pandemic: doubts about China’s zero covid strategy

China has largely brought the latest corona outbreak under control. The aim is to completely prevent new infections. But doubts are growing as to whether China can stick to this zero-Covid strategy.

Breathe a sigh of relief in China – the number of new infections across the country is back in the double-digit range, as reported by state television. The way there: strict domestic travel restrictions, mass tests, local lockdowns. But the government’s zero-covid strategy demands a lot from people.

The latest outbreak totally shook my life, says a worker in Beijing who lost one of his two jobs as a result of recent restrictions. He could no longer pay bills. The pandemic affects him very much.

International trade suffers from strict measures taken by China

Foreign companies are also affected. Strict entry restrictions and long quarantine obligations continue to apply. Due to a single corona case, one of the largest ports in China, Ningbo, was recently partially closed – supply chains got mixed up.

While other countries tolerate certain incidences in view of rising vaccination rates, China is sticking to the zero-Covid course. Nicholas Thomas, who is researching China’s handling of the pandemic at City University in Hong Kong, sees this with skepticism.

If it were only about China, this strategy would be ok. But China has to open up to the world again for economic reasons. They cannot stick to the zero covid strategy in the long term; they have to change it in the next six to 12 months.

Nationalists celebrate success in the fight against Corona

Learning to live with the virus would be the alternative to zero covid. But when the well-known epidemiologist Zhang Wenhong recently argued in this direction in a social media post, he got a shit storm and was insulted as a traitor and “American dog”. China’s nationalists see the successes in fighting the virus as proof of the superiority of the authoritarian one-party system, so criticism is undesirable.

Others also argue in a similar way to Zhang. “We need a serious discussion among experts as to whether the current prevention and control strategies should be adapted and optimized,” said health economist Liu Guoen from Beijing University recently.

China is not well prepared for the Delta variant

But changing the zero covid strategy is tricky. Because China is not well prepared for the highly contagious Delta variant of the virus. About 55 percent of the people in the country are fully vaccinated – but the Chinese vaccines are less effective against the Delta variant than the MRNA vaccines from BioNTech or Moderna, says Nicholas Thomas.

China needs to use MRNA vaccines in the general population to improve immunity. Until then, they can only continue as before – with lockdowns and strict contact follow-up. But the vaccinations are key.

But a third vaccination with an MRNA vaccine is not only logistically difficult. There is also a lack of trust. For months, state media and government officials have questioned the safety of foreign vaccines – and presented their own vaccines as the better. Turning around now is difficult. People like Zhang Wenhong are therefore unlikely to be heard in China. And the borders of the world’s second largest economy are likely to remain largely closed.