Orange juice is the most popular fruit juice in Germany. But the coveted juice is becoming more and more expensive and is therefore becoming a real luxury good. The price per liter could rise to over two euros.
For many people, morning orange juice is part of their breakfast. But it is questionable whether it will stay that way, because the price of orange juice is expected to continue to rise. The German fruit juice industry is expecting this, she said.
The significant cost increases due to poor harvests would have to be “passed on to the food trade and thus to the end consumer. Orange juice will probably continue to become more expensive,” said the managing director of the industry association VdF, Klaus Heitlinger. The juice can no longer be sold commercially for less than two euros per liter.
Worst harvest since 1988?
The fruit juice manufacturers are relying on a forecast from the Brazilian Citrus Industry Association. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of orange juice and, with around 80 percent of the market, the most important EU supplier. For the 2024/2025 season, a decline in the harvest of around 25 percent is expected compared to the previous year.
That would be the worst orange harvest since 1988. Annual production of orange juice would therefore decline by around 1.7 billion liters. This means that around four liters less would be available per EU citizen. For comparison: The per capita consumption of orange juice in Germany was 6.8 liters in 2023.
High temperatures and lack of water
The continuous decline in Brazilian orange production in recent years has reduced inventories to zero and massively limited the availability of orange juice concentrate.
The reason for the decline is climate change. In the current season, the combination of high temperatures and a severe lack of water results in a low number of fruits per tree. Added to this is citrus greening, a disease that causes trees to die and thus destroys entire orange plantations. At the same time, global demand for orange juice remains high.
Increase in raw material prices expected
As a result, the industry association expects a sharp increase in raw material prices. “On the raw material exchanges, orange juice is currently traded at a premium of up to 150 percent compared to the beginning of 2022,” said Heitlinger.
The situation for manufacturers has been difficult for a long time. There has also been significantly less production recently in other supplier countries such as the USA and Spain. Experts had already predicted rising prices in the past. Figures from the Federal Statistical Office show: Orange juice and similar juices were a good 30 percent more expensive in 2023 than in 2020. There have also been problems recently with apple juice. Due to low harvest volumes, last year the lowest amount of juice was pressed in ten years.