Chinese scientists estimate that a complete lifting of the zero-Covid strategy in China would trigger a wave of infections with 1.55 million deaths. According to her Study in the journal Nature Medicine there could be 112 million symptomatic infections within six months. The intensive care units would be overwhelmed: the need would be 15.6 times higher than the capacity. Although 91 percent of Chinese are vaccinated and 53 percent are also boosted, outbreaks cannot be prevented.
In a worst-case scenario, the highly contagious omicron variant would have the potential to lead to 5.1 million hospital admissions. 2.7 million patients would then be in intensive care units, write the authors led by Hongjie Yu from Fudan University in Shanghai. Because of the age disparity in China’s vaccine coverage, most of the dead would be unvaccinated people over 60.
The absence of the virus combined with inadequate vaccines is proving fatal
With their warning, the scientists indirectly support the controversial tough Covid policy of the Beijing leadership, but also outline the dilemma in which China finds itself. Dissatisfaction in the country with the tough measures is growing. Tens of thousands are in quarantine under sometimes difficult conditions. Food deliveries are stagnating and medical care is limited. Cargo traffic through the world’s largest port in Shanghai has collapsed due to a lack of trucks. Most of the 26 million residents of the port metropolis of Shanghai and tens of millions in other metropolises, especially in northeast China, have been in lockdown for more than a month.
After two years of largely successful virus control and isolation, China is now a victim of its own success, as there is no contamination. “The lack of vaccination protection and the absence of the virus mean that the Chinese population is in a similar position to the entire world population at the beginning of the pandemic,” says Timo Ulrichs, an expert in global health at the Acre University of Human Sciences in Berlin. “In view of the very high infectivity of the omicron variant, the zero-Covid strategy can only be maintained with ever stricter measures.” The question remains: “What comes after that?”
The researchers led by Hongjie Yu also show how the number of dead and sick could be reduced with an adapted strategy. Vaccination, including boosters and campaigns for people over 60, played a key role, as well as antiviral therapies and social distancing. A combination of the measures is necessary because none of the proposals alone would be able to reduce the number of deaths to the level of normal flu waves.
An expert recommends vaccination with the vaccines approved in the West
“Whether or for how long a zero-Covid policy can be maintained is questionable,” write the study’s authors. As recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), all nations should prepare to “design their own pathway for the transition from a pandemic to an endemic phase”.
After a “dynamic”, somewhat more targeted zero-Covid strategy was adopted in August 2021 because of the more contagious virus variants, China is now debating how long this procedure can continue, the authors believe. The debate is shifting to strategies to reduce the burden on the health system.
Ulrichs says he does not share the fear that the healthcare system would be overloaded immediately after a cautious opening in China. “It all depends on the right strategy, and there are good role models for that in other countries.” It would be advisable for China to “let the virus into the country with careful openings”. At the same time, the expert recommends vaccinating across the board with the four vaccines approved in the West. The Chinese vaccines “do not appear to produce sufficient immunity”.