Status: December 31, 2021 10:29 a.m.
It is still completely unclear how the impending omicron wave will affect Germany. Well-known virologists such as Drosten and Streeck are mutedly optimistic – one reason for this is news from other countries.
Prominent virologists see reason for cautious optimism in the further development of the corona pandemic in Germany. The Berlin virologist Christian Drosten refers to data from South Africa, where the particularly contagious virus variant Omikron initially spread: “In a certain way that can calm us down. South Africa is certainly a glimpse into a future, into an endemic situation that is currently occurring there sets “, said Drosten on ZDF. “Unfortunately we are still a long way off.”
The transition from a pandemic to an endemic situation means that the virus will continue to spread, but is less dangerous – comparable to the typical cold viruses, which also include other coronaviruses.
Streeck sees an advantage for Germany
Health Minister Karl Lauterbach cautiously commented on the “very interesting study” from South Africa during the night. It shows that Omikron spread four times as fast as Delta, but caused significantly less severe cases, he wrote on Twitter. “Nevertheless, the data do not allow any clear conclusions to be drawn about older people who have not been vaccinated.”
The Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck told RTL: “Germany is lucky that the other countries are ahead of us. We can see what is happening there and prepare for it.” In addition, the politicians in this country would have taken “pretty strong measures”. “That gives hope that we will get a milder wave.”
Streeck and Drosten sit in the federal government’s new expert council. Many experts like Lauterbach expect that the peak of an Omikron wave in Germany is still to come.
Development in Great Britain “encouraging”
However, Streeck does not currently consider even stricter measures to be necessary: ”We must first wait until we have better data in order to then see how the number of cases develops.” With milder weather in spring, the number of infections will decrease again, which is why Germany will certainly “have a relaxed summer”.
The development in Great Britain with regard to Omikron is also encouraging, said Drosten, “because the number of serious illnesses seems to be lower”. However, the virologist believes that politics in Germany will continue to be challenged, “maybe until Easter”. Thereafter, an “update” of the vaccines could create more security against Omikron.
But he is worried about the relatively large group of citizens who have neither been vaccinated nor recovered, said Drosten. “Unfortunately, this is a German special problem.”
DIVI leader calls for a new warning system
The head of the intensive care register of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI), Christian Karagiannidis, is somewhat more pessimistic. It is possible that the Omikron variant causes milder disease courses, he told the “Rheinische Post”.
“The sheer number of new infections that we are currently heading for could still pose major challenges for intensive care capacities, but even more for hospitalization overall,” said Karagiannidis. The federal and state governments should therefore quickly agree on a warning system based on the factors of intensive care bed occupancy, hospitalization rate and incidence.