The R-value, the incidence value, the intensive care bed occupancy: such key figures can help to assess the drama of the pandemic – and to decide on appropriate measures. Now that the number of infections is skyrocketing and more and more intensive care beds are occupied, a new criterion applies according to the Infection Protection Act: the incidence of hospitalization. What it means and how useful it is.
What is the hospitalization incidence?
It says how many out of 100,000 people tested positive for Corona in the past week and were admitted to a clinic. If the value exceeds certain limits, the federal states must adapt their corona rules.
What are the measures?
If the value in a federal state is three, the 2-G rule applies to gastronomy, cultural and sporting events: Only those who have been vaccinated or who have recovered are allowed in. From a value of six it is called 2-G-Plus: Even vaccinated and convalescent people must now show a test, especially in clubs and bars. If the value rises above nine, stricter measures such as contact restrictions can be taken.
How is this new incidence recorded?
Clinics must notify the health authorities promptly if they admit a patient who has tested positive for Covid-19. A standardized, digital reporting procedure is missing, explains the head of the German Hospital Association Gerald Gaß. The information must first be recorded manually or digitally and then emailed or faxed to the authorities. These forward the data to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).
Why is the hospitalization rate criticized?
The cumbersome data acquisition is particularly problematic. In the stressful everyday hospital routine, there is often not enough time to create and send the necessary documents immediately. This delays reports to health authorities and the RKI.
In addition, the RKI does not sort the reported cases according to the date of hospital admission, but rather according to the date of the first positive test. So anyone who comes to the clinic today but tested positive more than a week ago will not count on the seven-day bill. This is also viewed with skepticism because the health of many infected people only worsens massively after days.
It is also criticized that the delay in reporting varies greatly from region to region. Therefore the values are difficult to compare. And precisely where the situation is particularly dire and clinics and authorities are overwhelmed, there are often distortions. Experts complain that the hospitalization incidence values are almost always initially too low and the burden on the clinics is therefore underestimated. The rate is corrected retrospectively, but in the past few weeks it was often twice as high. But that no longer plays a role in political decisions. The nationwide value on this Friday was 5.3. Estimates by the Süddeutsche Zeitung based on past deviations show, however, that it should be between nine and eleven.
What would be a better solution?
The RKI knows that the informative value of the incidence of hospitalizations is limited. In his step-by-step plan, the limit values for more stringent measures are therefore set considerably lower: already at 1.5 and five instead of only three and six. The methodological weaknesses of the indicator are therefore factored in.
It is more important, however, not to rely on just one value. Gerald Gaß and other experts also suggest a triad: Corona incidence, occupancy of intensive care units and hospitalization rate – provided that the reporting procedure is improved.