Azerbaijan has conquered the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh – is the country now planning further attacks? In Armenia people are preparing for the worst.
“What to do in the event of an air alarm” – notices from the Ministry of Emergency Situations have been stuck to the entrances of houses in Armenia’s capital for several days. Behavior is described if sirens trigger an air alarm over Yerevan.
Even though hundreds stroll through the city center every evening and enjoy the late summer, tension hangs over the city. Lara Arahonian, for example, has had an emergency kit at the entrance to her apartment since the 2020 war. She is experienced in crises, but she has never felt as unsafe as she does now in Armenia.
Her NGO Women’s Resource Center is currently organizing assistance for the women and girls who fled to Armenia when Azerbaijani forces took Nagorno-Karabakh starting September 19.
Attack on Armenia feared
While the state and civil society try to integrate the officially more than 100,000 people, their eyes remain fearfully focused on Azerbaijan. Because President Ilham Aliyev could strive to achieve further goals militarily.
Specifically, he is concerned with the creation of transport routes across Armenian territory to the Nakhichevan exclave. In addition, the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan must be clarified.
Even though negotiations have been ongoing since a ceasefire in November 2020, Azerbaijani troops have already attacked Armenian territory several times and occupied strategically important heights in the mountainous border area. At the narrowest point between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, the Armenian area in between is less than 30 kilometers wide.
There is also propaganda from Baku that Azerbaijan has a claim to the south of Armenia or even the entire country.
Smart player
Experts in Yerevan such as Eric Hacopian describe Aliyev as a shrewd player who knew how to exploit Azerbaijan’s military and strategic advantages. After taking Nagorno-Karabakh, however, there is a possibility that he will over-excite his hand.
The violent expulsion of the Armenians at this point in time surprised many, as their leadership had previously moved towards the government in Baku. In addition, Aliyev had personally promised representatives of the USA and the EU that he would not take military action against the population of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia’s former Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan sees the fact that he did so as a humiliation for the USA and the EU. Aliyev is using a salami tactic: sending his forces a little further into Nagorno-Karabakh or Armenia and waiting for international reactions before advancing further.
Aliyev has now canceled a long-planned meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at short notice in the presence of EU Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz this Thursday in Granada, Spain. This shows that he is now by no means more willing to compromise, but is instead setting new conditions. Apparently, Aliyev primarily wanted Macron not to sit at the table at the meeting, which he accused of having an anti-Azerbaijani attitude.
On your own
Hacopian, Mnatsakanyan and many others see their country on its own, which is also threatened by its ally Russia. Since President Vladimir Putin repeatedly gives preference to Azerbaijan, the Armenian leadership is now turning its attention to other states – and is expecting retaliation from Moscow.
In anticipation of higher gas prices, considerations are circulating about how badly the economy will be affected and whether wood can be a substitute for heating. A coup and an assassination attempt on Pashinyan cannot be ruled out either.
Develop strength
Despite or especially in view of the threats to Armenia’s statehood, determination can be felt in many places. Armenia already has a higher GDP per capita than Azerbaijan, says Hacopian. As a dictatorial state with export products of oil and gas, Azerbaijan will inevitably become weaker if these resources run out in the foreseeable future.
The Armenian journalist Raffi Elliott describes the goal of arming his country, which will increase the price for Azerbaijan to such an extent that it will refrain from attacks. This is achieved through military cooperation with India and the Czech Republic, whose weapons systems are based on Soviet models. With the military cooperation promised by France on Tuesday, it remains to be seen what exactly it entails.
Support from Europe
France is also sending a military attaché to Yerevan and wants to set up a consulate in the south of Armenia – as a strong signal to Azerbaijan. In Germany there is a proposal to introduce 90 days of visa-free travel.
NGO employees like Lara Aharonian really want this because they would have to wait months for visas to be issued and therefore often cannot take part in conferences. It would also be a sign of trust and belonging for Armenia, said Aharonian.
Work is underway to strengthen the EU observation mission on the border with Azerbaijan, whose presence has helped to calm the situation there. At least Aliyev has not launched a major offensive on Armenia since their arrival at the end of 2022; at the moment the situation in the border area is still relatively stable.
Weak pressure on Azerbaijan
It is questionable whether the EU could agree on sanctions against Azerbaijan, given that Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban maintains excellent contacts with Baku. The agreement on energy cooperation with Azerbaijan, signed by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which was sharply criticized not only by Armenia, is non-binding.
Azerbaijani gas deliveries, however, are important for southern European countries. Alternative suppliers would have to be found here. Other investment projects could no longer be pursued.
Personal sanctions against those seen as responsible for serious human rights violations would also be possible, along the lines of the sanctions against Putin’s power circle.
However, the Reuters agency quotes a diplomat in Brussels as saying that the EU could only condemn Azerbaijan’s actions and concentrate on support for Armenia – international help and attention that Armenia, which is weak compared to its neighbors, needs for its survival.
The military cemetery on the outskirts of Yerevan shows the price that Armenians are paying in the conflict with Azerbaijan. To the thousands of graves from the two wars up to 1994 and 2020, new ones are still being added every day. The faces of the relatives show the deep suffering that otherwise remains hidden in the everyday hustle and bustle of Yerevan.