Driven by the economy, shortages and the Ukraine crisis, the price of oil is rapidly heading towards 100 dollars, dragging the costs of fuel and heating oil up with it. On Monday, a barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea variety Brent, which is important for Europe, was traded at up to 96 US dollars. This is the highest level since autumn 2014. Fuel is currently even more expensive than ever: According to the ADAC, premium grade E10 petrol cost 1.739 euros per liter on a nationwide daily average on Sunday. With diesel it was 1.655 euros. Both are highs.
The increase in heating oil is also noticeable: the information portal Heizoel24 gave the average price for a delivery quantity of 3000 liters on Monday at 93.50 euros per liter. This is just below the peak values from 2007 and 2012.
The main driver of this development is the price of oil. According to experts at Dekabank, it has risen by around 25 percent since the beginning of the year alone, and by as much as 50 percent over the year. Experts cite three main reasons for this; two more long-term and one short-term.
The short-term price driver is tensions on the Ukraine-Russia border. Oil prices are becoming more and more responsive to developments, as Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers. “If there is a military escalation, the West can expect far-reaching sanctions against Russia,” says commodities expert Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank. Should these sanctions affect the energy sector, crude oil supplies could also be affected.
The same applies to natural gas, the price of which has also risen sharply recently. According to Fritsch, Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas in the world. Fuel market expert Jürgen Albrecht from ADAC also expects prices for oil and fuel to rise significantly again in the event of an invasion.
The two longer-term drivers of oil prices are supply and demand. There is a general shortage of supply on the market – mainly because the oil association Opec+, led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, has not met its production targets for months. The reasons for this include production bottlenecks in smaller OPEC countries like Angola, but also in larger countries like Iraq. This is countered by an increasing demand. Even if the corona pandemic continues, many restrictions on economic life have been lifted. ADAC expert Albrecht also speaks of the hope of an upturn in the economy and global economic recovery as a driver of the oil price.
However, Albrecht can calm down on one point that is regularly mentioned as a horror scenario. “A fuel price of two euros per liter is a long way off,” he says. “You can’t seriously count on that in the medium term, because the price of oil would have to climb to around $150 per barrel.” The reason for this is that large parts of the fuel price at the pump are not directly dependent on the oil price. Taxes, sales costs or CO₂ pricing together make up much more than the price of the raw material. As a result, the fluctuations in the oil price arrive at the filling station with a dampened effect. In addition, the prospects for diesel drivers are currently somewhat better. The fuel is typically a bit more expensive in winter because of its similarity to heating oil. With the approaching spring, however, this effect decreases again.
The current situation is still painful for drivers, says Albrecht. According to the ADAC, if you want to save money, you should consciously choose cheap gas stations and fill up in the evening hours when the fuel is usually cheaper. In addition, significantly more drivers could use the cheaper Super E10 instead of the E5. In addition, the traffic club calls for the increase in the distance allowance to be brought forward to 38 cents per kilometer.