Climate change
Greenhouse gas emissions at their lowest level since the 1950s
According to experts’ analysis, the record year does not represent an effective success for climate protection. Photo
© Uwe Anspach/dpa
Germany emits fewer greenhouse gases than it has for a long time. This is what experts from the Agora Energiewende think tank assume. But that sounds better than it is.
Accordingly, CO2 emissions have fallen by 73 million tons to a total of 673 million tons compared to 2022 – which corresponds to a decrease of 46 percent compared to 1990. This emerges from a study entitled “The energy transition in Germany: State of play in 2023”, which will be presented this Thursday in Berlin and is available to the German Press Agency in Berlin.
“In 2023, emissions have reached their lowest level since the 1950s. At the same time, this is the largest year-on-year decline in this period,” Agora’s Germany director, Simon Müller, told dpa. For the period before reunification, the authors added together data on greenhouse gas emissions from the Federal Republic and the GDR. However: According to experts’ analysis, the record year does not represent a lasting success for climate protection.
Why emissions have fallen
The study authors attribute only around 15 percent of the decline to permanent savings, for example through the expansion of renewable energies, more efficient use of energy and the switch to more climate-friendly fuels. Around half is due to short-term effects such as lower electricity consumption. The lower emissions are also due to the weakening of German industry, with production in energy-intensive industries in particular collapsing. “The slump in production caused by the crisis is weakening Germany as an industrial location. If emissions are simply shifted abroad as a result, nothing will be gained for the climate,” emphasized Müller.
According to Agora, the main reason for the better climate balance is that last year less electricity was generated from the climate-damaging burning of coal. Emissions from electricity generation fell by 46 million to 177 million tons of CO2, more than halving compared to 1990. As usual, CO2 or carbon dioxide includes other greenhouse gases that have been converted into CO2 for better comparability. The fact that less coal was used to generate electricity was due to the price-related decline in electricity consumption of 3.9 percent compared to 2022. Energy prices rose as a result of the Ukraine crisis. There was also a strong year for electricity from renewable energies across Europe, according to the study authors. In addition, renewable energies also increased in Germany.
Problem children buildings and traffic
Agora assumes that the building sector has failed to meet its climate target for the fourth time in a row. According to the calculations, emissions here only fell by 3 million to 109 million tons of CO2, which was due to the lower heating requirement due to mild weather. The sector is therefore 8 million tonnes above the necessary path to achieve the 2030 target.
The transport sector has therefore missed the target set in the Climate Protection Act for the third time in a row. According to Agora, emissions here have also fallen by 3 million to 145 million tonnes of CO2 compared to the previous year. That is 12 million tons above the current target path. The share of electric cars in new registrations stagnated.
Solar is booming, wind is weakening
According to Agora, the expansion of solar power reached record levels last year: 14.4 gigawatts of power were added, 6.2 gigawatts (GW) more than in the previous peak year of 2012. Although there were fewer hours of sunshine than in the previous year, the amount of electricity generated increased. The federal government is aiming for an installed capacity of 215 GW for photovoltaics by 2030; Agora expects 81.9 GW for 2023. The systems are built even if there was no money from the state: According to the think tank, 9 percent of the solar capacity added on open spaces was built outside of EEG tenders and therefore without state funding.
“We are on track for the 2030 climate goals in this area,” said Müller. “The prerequisite for it to stay that way is the expansion and digitalization of the distribution networks.” By 2030, the federal government wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent compared to 1990.
According to the study, thanks to favorable weather and slight expansion, wind turbines produced more electricity with 138 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2023 than German coal-fired power plants with 132 TWh. However, the increase in generation capacity of 2.9 GW for onshore wind was far too small to meet the federal government’s goal of an installed capacity of around 115 GW by 2030. “This is also due to the significantly more complicated approval procedures compared to solar power,” noted Müller. However, permits for onshore wind turbines increased significantly.
Failure to meet EU climate targets could be costly
Together with the other EU states, Germany has also set goals for reducing greenhouse gases for the period 2021 to 2030. Areas affected are those that are not part of European emissions trading, i.e. transport, buildings, agriculture and waste as well as parts of the industrial sector.
The Federal Environment Agency also predicted a significant gap here by 2030. Germany would then have to buy rights to emit greenhouse gases from other EU countries or risk infringement proceedings by the EU Commission with possible fines. “If Germany does not make progress in climate protection in buildings and transport, Germany will face costs running into billions,” warned Müller.
Funding uncertain
How exactly the climate-friendly restructuring of the German economy will continue is unclear after the Federal Constitutional Court’s budget ruling. The federal government’s agreement on next year’s budget secures essential elements, said Agora. “However, there is still a lack of a concept for the medium and long-term financing of necessary investments. Müller warned: “Inaction also causes costs.”