China’s Ukraine Initiative: “By no means a comprehensive peace plan”

A comprehensive ceasefire and de-escalation: This is what China names as the goal of its paper on the war in Ukraine. The China expert Huotari says in an interview that China is primarily supporting the Russian position.

tagesschau24: What do you think of China’s “peace plan”? Could he actually be a forerunner to peace?

Mike Huotari: In theory it is conceivable that it is a building block. But first we have to face the facts that it is China’s position for a political settlement of the conflict. But it is by no means a comprehensive peace plan or anything like that. In many ways it is ultimately a form of covert support for Russian positions. If you look closely, it is quite clearly stated who is believed to be the cause of this conflict, namely “the Cold War mentality” – ie the USA in particular.

And in many places, despite a few helpful hints about what is supported, for example, that no nuclear weapons should be used and the like, it is made clear that ultimately Russian interests are also to be secured here.

tagesschau24: The plan also mentions, for example, the territorial integrity of all states. By this I would understand that Ukraine would have to get back its full territory. What does that mean in this case?

Huotari: That’s not what it means. If you read on, you will see that double standards are to be avoided here, writes the Chinese site. They are aiming at the question of Taiwan. Chinese interests are put first here. The territorial integrity of Ukraine, its sovereignty is not the ultimate goal. This is a reference to the UN Charter that must be preserved.

Sovereignty is the central principle here, but that has to be weighed up, according to Beijing’s perspective, with Russia’s legitimate security interests. China certainly wouldn’t oppose it in the medium term if that were to happen, but it is not the overriding principle of the peace process, which we are only just beginning, if at all.

“It’s about driving a wedge in the West”

tagesschau24: You said China obviously supports Russian interests. What interests is China pursuing with this plan?

Huotari: This includes the support of Russia. It’s the big neighbor to the north. The stability at the border, the stability of Putin’s regime is important for Beijing – and also the common position in the rejection of the USA and this strategic dispute in which Beijing sees itself. It is also about driving a wedge in the West, preventing the US, EU and other actors from forming a bloc.

It is about avoiding China’s isolation internationally and making one’s own positions salient and working with the global South to ensure, for example, that sanctions are not imposed unilaterally. And at the end of the day, the point is that China, also with a view to a possible Taiwan crisis, will ensure that no international alliance is forged against alleged authoritarian states, according to the perspective in Beijing.

signal to the international community

tagesschau24: When the UN General Assembly passed the resolution condemning aggressive war and calling on Russia to withdraw its troops, China abstained, but it did not vote against either. What does that say?

Huotari: China sees the United Nations as an important platform for asserting its own interests. China’s condemnation of Russia is not part of the program. At this point, abstention does not in any way mean supporting Western interests, but quite clearly – and therefore also the simultaneous publication – the attempt to say: Here we are with our positions and one should, if you please, align yourself with them, as far as this is possible.

It is an attempt not to turn one’s back on the West and to signal to the international community that one has its own positions – and to back Russia.

“The more important question is how the international constellation is shifting”

tagesschau24: Some say that China is also monitoring the situation in Ukraine very closely in order to draw conclusions about a possible invasion of Taiwan. You have already mentioned the keyword Taiwan. And if that’s the case, what lessons might China have learned from this after a year?

Huotari: First of all, these are questions about the development of the war. Specifically: How far is the Russian army asserting itself and what means can the Ukrainian army use to defend itself? A close look is being taken to see whether this allows conclusions to be drawn about how far China could assert itself in a conflict with Taiwan.

But the assessment of how the global constellation is shifting is probably more important at the moment. Does the West stick together – yes or no? How is the Global South positioning itself? All of these are questions that would also be important for Beijing in view of a possible conflict in Taiwan. In this respect: Beijing is looking very closely at it. The question of whether China could also be sanctioned and in what form, whether it could hit them hard or less hard, is central to Beijing.

“Use everything where China ‘plays along'”

tagesschau24: So far it looks like the West is sticking together. We also saw that a few days ago when Joe Biden appeared in Warsaw and practically invoked the unity of the West. Can it be deduced from this how China will behave on the international stage in the coming weeks and months when weighing up its own interests?

Huotari: I don’t expect a big movement. I believe that the principles and interests have been clarified. Support for Russia is a fixed parameter. I don’t see much room for compromise from Beijing’s perspective with regard to Ukrainian and European interests.

The culprit has been found – it’s “the cold war mentality of the USA and everyone involved”. In this respect, from my perspective, there is no basis for initiating a comprehensive peace process. More importantly, the UN has presented its own plan, to which 141 countries have signed up. And that, if anything, should be the basis, as of now, for moving forward.

It remains necessary that one should use everything where China “plays along” – even if it is only a small contribution like the commitment to stability, the protection of nuclear facilities, possibly also the exchange of prisoners of war and the like. But we shouldn’t be fooled into hoping that China is an actor here acting in Ukrainian and European interests.

The questions were asked by Gerrit Derkowski, tagesschau24. The interview was slightly adapted for the written presentation.