Washington as a criminal against human rights, as a heartless occupier, chaos maker and Pinocchio with a long nose: the Chinese state media are reporting with relish these days about the catastrophic withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan. Gladly also with malicious caricatures. When it became clear how serious the situation is in Kabul, the ultra-national published Global Times yet another drawing. Then the Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, who is shown the direction by a bald eagle, heraldic animal of the USA. Without noticing it, the President walks towards a deep hole.
According to the commentary on the cartoon, the withdrawal shocked many in Asia. But Taiwan is most dependent on the protection of Washington, so the fear in Taipei is said to be correspondingly great. Other Chinese media quickly took up this thesis. Afghanistan is the last evidence of the end of American leadership in the world. Allies and partners like Taiwan will no longer be able to rely on the country in the future, so the unanimous opinion of the commentators. “Is that an omen for Taiwan?” She asked Global Times.
A few days later, the Chinese People’s Army held military exercises in close proximity to Taiwan. In response to external interference and provocation by independence forces, the army declared. A portal from the state news agency Xinhua announced that Beijing was increasing its readiness to fight. In the past three months, the armed forces have carried out almost 40 exercises in the region – also to deter foreign armed forces.
The situation in Afghanistan and the obligations towards Taiwan are, and Chinese commentators should at best know this themselves, can hardly be compared with one another; most of the supposed analogies seem outrageous. The United States and Taiwan have had close ties since the Civil War, which are governed by the Taiwan Relations Act 1979. Support for the island is undisputed across all parties in Washington. In the past few years, the USA has further strengthened this. Nevertheless, the threat to the small island nation 160 kilometers off the coast of China is greater than ever today. And that also has to do with Afghanistan.
The tone has changed under Xi Jinping
Taiwan and China have been separated from each other since the end of the Chinese civil war. In 1949 the communists prevailed against the rival nationalists and proclaimed the People’s Republic of China on the mainland. The defeated opponents fled to Taiwan and formed their own government there. Over the past 70 years or more, relationships have repeatedly been shaped by crises and conflicts, but there has never been a direct armed confrontation. For a long time, a military capture of the island was more of a fantasy than a concrete scenario. It changes.
Until a few years ago, Beijing was still propagating peaceful reunification, and the Chinese Hong Kong Special Administrative Region should serve as a possible model. Relations between the two states were relatively good, and economic exchanges were close. But the tone has changed under state and party leader Xi Jinping.
China’s President Xi Jinping has set a clear goal: In 2017, he said that reunification was an “indispensable prerequisite” for the country to re-emerge as a world power. Two years later, he openly threatened Taiwan. The situation is unlikely to be passed on from one generation to the next. A reunification had to come about with “all necessary means”. Even if some observers point out that Xi never gave an exact point in time – he seems more impatient than his predecessors.
The consequences can be felt every day for the Taiwanese. Chinese fighter planes are constantly penetrating Taiwanese airspace. The military threats are accompanied by cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns and electoral interference in a way that democracy has never seen before. The news agency Reuters documented in February how armies of dredgers were removing the sand piece by piece around the Taiwanese Matsu Islands. The hugging tactic has turned into an attempt to exhaust the Taiwanese by all means. Experts have long been speaking of a conflict on the verge of war.
The balance of power has shifted
In addition, Beijing has stepped up its efforts to diplomatically isolate the country. In the past 25 years, China has caused more than a dozen countries to sever official ties with Taipei. There are only 15 countries left that recognize Taiwan. The Federal Republic of Germany is also not risking its business relations with Beijing in order to support democracy. In the pandemic, that meant that despite the great hardship, Taiwan could not attend the World Health Organization’s general meetings – not even as an assessor.
None of this has much to do with the withdrawal of the Americans from Afghanistan. Beijing’s response, however, shows a danger. For a long time, no one in China’s capital would have seriously expected to win a military conflict with Taiwan. But the balance of power in the region has shifted. Many Chinese commentators these days seem to be convinced that US intervention no longer seems certain. So far, the threats against Taiwan have been a cheap tool to rally the people behind you. The greatest threat to peace in the region is likely to be that Beijing will begin to believe its own words.