From our correspondent in the United States,
Every Monday is “Midterms Monday” on 20 minutes. On November 8, 160 million Americans are called to the polls, two years after Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump, in a country more divided than ever. Mid-term elections at the same time national, in Congress, and local, with posts of governors and secretaries of State crucial for the next presidential election. Follow the leader.
The Chamber: Full renewal, the Republicans in a position of strength
The rules are simple: the 435 seats are renewed every two years, with a majority of 218. Historically, it is almost always a sanction vote for the tenant of the White House. In 19 midterms since the post-war period, the ruling president’s party has lost seats in 17 polls. Sometimes it’s even a big slap, like for Obama in 2010, with a decline of 63 seats.
According to the different models, the Republicans have a two out of three chance of being in the majority. Joe Biden is a historically unpopular president, with 42% satisfaction – a score close to that of Trump in 2018. Galloping inflation remains the number 1 concern for households. And this is the first ballot since the 2020 census, with a redistribution of constituencies (“gerrymandering”) favorable to the Republicans, who control more local legislatures than the Democrats.
The Republicans only need a gain of 5 seats to win. However, a surprise is not excluded: the Supreme Court’s decision, which reversed the national guarantee of the right to abortion (Roe v. Wade), seems to have galvanized the Democrats, and the popularity rating of Joe Biden has climbed five points in two months after a series of legislative successes. Everything should be played out over twenty tight duels.
The Senate: A third in play, the favorite Democrats
There, the math gets complicated. The 100 senators are elected for six-year terms, with a third of the seats renewed every two years. This year, it is therefore the promotion elected in 2016, in the wake of Donald Trump. Twenty-two of the 36 seats in play are currently held by Republicans, who therefore have more to lose.
Above all, during the primaries, voters chose “MAGA” candidates supported by Donald Trump. Very on the right, they seem to have trouble raising funds and seducing the independents, these centrists who represent 40% of the electorate. Because to be elected, it is necessary to seduce the population of an entire State, and not of a simple constituency cut to measure as in the Chamber.
Faced with this risky strategy, the Democrats can count on strong incumbents and moderate candidates. According the FiveThirtyEight website templatethey have two out of three chances of keeping their tiny majority (50 out of 100 currently), and could even win one or two additional seats.
Governors and Secretaries of State: Key positions for 2024
On November 8, 36 out of 50 states choose their governors, and 27 their secretary of state. Two key positions in the organization of the presidential elections, and especially in the verification and certification of the results. After the 2020 battle and unsuccessful lobbying by Donald Trump, Republican voters chose conspiratorial candidates in three crucial battles: Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Some have publicly stated that they would not have validated the results two years ago. Most states also organize local legislative elections, and it is these elected officials who will be responsible for validating the lists of electors for the 2024 presidential election.
Referendums: Access to Abortion and Legalization of Cannabis
Voters can vote on November 8 on initiatives that have collected enough petitioners. In some cases, a state’s constitution can be amended by referendum. This year, California, Vermont and Michigan are proposing to protect the right to abortion, while Montana and Kentucky must decide on restrictions. Five states could join the 19 that have already legalized the recreational use of cannabis (Maryland, Missouri, Arkansas, North and South Dakota), and Colorado could decriminalize the possession of hallucinogenic mushrooms. And if slavery was abolished at the federal level in 1865, five states (Alabama, Louisiana, Oregon, Tennessee and Vermont) could, finally, symbolically prohibit any form of servitude.