If the foreign visitors that Olaf Scholz is hosting in the Chancellery this Friday took a look at the local daily press, they would have been surprised to read it. She must be surprised by the news that her host has spoken out. Where they come from, every word they speak is a word of power. Scholz receives the presidents of all five Central Asian states (C5). What they all have in common is that they rule their homeland – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – in a more or less authoritarian manner.
However, they are also united in their concern about Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the imperial behavior of their large neighbor. The Central Asians are intensively looking for new partners. On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last week, the C5 leaders met with US President Joe Biden in New York, and are now talking to Scholz in Berlin about a strategic partnership.
The pipeline from Kazakhstan still runs through Russian territory
Kazakh President Kassim-Schomart Tokayev emphasized on Thursday after a conversation with Scholz that great importance is attached to expanding relations with Europe and Germany. As president of the largest C5 state, Tokayev was the vanguard and set the tone by, on the one hand, recruiting German investments and, on the other hand, promising increased supplies of raw materials. After Russia’s failure as a supplier of natural gas and oil, Kazakhstan is happy to fill at least some of the resulting gaps.
The refinery in Schwedt, which was originally dependent on deliveries from Russia, is already processing oil from Kazakhstan. Tokayev promised that they were ready to increase the volume. However, the route through the Druzhba pipeline runs through Russia – which is why the federal government attaches importance to being able to continue operating the refinery without Kazakh oil if necessary.
Kazakhstan is an “important partner” in the effort to become independent of Russian energy supplies, emphasized Scholz. Germany is also relying on Kazakhstan for critical raw materials and the energy transition. It is agreed that the necessary transport routes must be expanded quickly. The focus is on the “middle corridor”, a planned route bypassing Russia. Kazakhstan, like its Central Asian neighbors, has found itself in a state of conflict since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the one hand, the flight of Western companies from Russia creates an opportunity to attract investors to their own market. On the other hand, Russia’s influence remains immense. The Central Asians are reluctant to criticize Russia, at least publicly.
Some countries are considered a big loophole in the sanctions fence
Scholz reported that he also spoke to Tokayev about the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. The German demand is clear: “Putin must cancel his plan and withdraw troops.” As long as he continues his “murderous war of aggression,” “what is necessary will be done to persuade him to turn back,” including with the sanctions. “It is good and helpful that the Kazakh side is supporting us in preventing sanctions evasion and has decided on active countermeasures,” praised Scholz.
In fact, Kazakhstan has so far been suspected of offering a large loophole for Western goods that are not allowed to be delivered to Russia. This was supported by the sudden boom in trade in some areas. In Berlin, however, people have now identified Kazakhstan’s efforts to close the loophole.
Kazakhstan has “clearly stated that we support the sanctions regime,” emphasized Tokayev. The German side should “not be afraid that anything could possibly be done on our part to circumvent the sanctions regime.” In the Ukraine conflict, now is the time “for clever diplomacy, for wise diplomacy.” Kazakhstan is in favor of “quickly and immediately stopping all military actions and complying with UN resolutions.”
When asked whether Kazakhstan itself fears falling victim to Moscow imperialism, Tokayev pointed out that his country maintains friendly relations with Russia. The border has been ratified by the parliaments of both countries. “We have no fears,” Tokayev assured, “that Russia could somehow claim our territory.”