CDU-SPD alliance in Berlin: black-red harmony – and a “residual risk”

For three weeks, the CDU and SPD wrestled in Berlin – now their coalition agreement is in place: CDU leader Wegner came a long way towards the SPD. Does his calculation work out – or is the black-red harmony short-lived?

Who prevailed, who “won”? Without this question it is not possible when coalition agreements are presented. In the case of the Berlin negotiators, it seemed to have been answered before the final presentation. In the past few weeks, the interpretation has largely prevailed that the interim results sound very social democratic. The SPD uses the pressure of their membership decision to negotiate (too) much with the CDU.

There are, for example, the billions spent to increase the proportion of state-owned apartments, the commitment to the minimum wage, the remunicipalisation of district heating and GASAG or the planned framework law for the expropriation of large housing groups, to name just a few.

Many wishes of the CDU are fulfilled

Now the coalition agreement is in place and the winner-loser equation cannot be that clear when the Berlin Greens complain that the CDU has prevailed across the board and the capital’s FDP criticizes that the Christian Democrats have sold their election campaign positions, only to get to the Red Town Hall. In fact, the 135-page paper bears the clear signature of the CDU, especially in the areas of home affairs and education.

The chapter “Internal affairs, security and order” contains a lot that would not have been feasible in the current coalition with the Greens and the Left: the desire for more online searches and expansion of telecommunications surveillance, the use of bodycams for operations in private homes, more video surveillance and no-knife zones in crime-prone locations, up to five days of preventive detention instead of the previous two. In addition, the final rescue shot should be regulated in a legally secure manner.

The SPD sets the tone

In terms of education, under pressure from the CDU, Berlin wants to say goodbye to a decades-long special path: religion should become a regular subject. The Christian Democrats and the churches have been demanding it for a long time, but have never been able to get it through. What was previously a voluntary offer in the off-peak hours is now to be a regular subject as an elective subject under the name “World Views/Religions”.

The CDU spirit also breathes the clear commitment to the basic grammar school in the coalition agreement and the planned abolition of the probationary year at the grammar school. Instead, an aptitude test should be introduced.

In addition to the main topics, the SPD can take credit for having set the tone of the coalition agreement: the clear commitment to diversity, openness and participation runs through the paper. For the CDU, it is a small attempt at absolution after she had been accused of racism for her first name query after the New Year’s Eve riots.

Wegner drives a calculus

The bottom line is that what many suspected while the coalition negotiations were still ongoing is true: CDU leader Kai Wegner has come a long way towards meeting the SPD – in any case, more than he should have done given the election results that the Social Democrats had brought in on February 12. However, this has less to do with the negotiating skills of the SPD than with Wegner’s calculations.

During the election campaign, he had already spoken of wanting to form a government in which the partners meet on an equal footing: in a coalition, you have to allow each other mutual success.

That was of course a dig at the alliance of SPD, Greens and Left, which is still in office. They had quarreled all too often in the past six years, and differences of opinion were often discussed publicly.

Approval does not come for free

It was therefore clear to Wegner: a good mood is important for good governance. He was also willing to make compromises in terms of content. Wrestling was only where it seemed necessary to Wegner. Setting accents to send signals to your own party. However, such signals are far less needed on the CDU side than on the Social Democrats. Because with the CDU, only one party congress has to agree to the coalition agreement.

There is no doubt that this will happen. Wegner would have had even more room for compromise. The CDU gets the Red Town Hall after 22 years – you can stay calm elsewhere.

In the SPD, on the other hand, the members decide whether Wegner becomes governing mayor or not. Wegner does not get this approval for free. For this reason, too, it seems wise from his perspective to leave it up to the SPD to decide what spirit this coalition agreement breathes.

A core issue lies with Giffey

Ultimately, this also applies to the allocation of departments. With the interior department and the urban development area, the SPD has had two of its wishes fulfilled. In view of the election campaign, it was also important to the Social Democrats that the SPD would continue to be responsible for domestic policy in the future.

The CDU had shown its most conservative side with its question about the first names of German suspects in the New Year’s Eve riots. If the interior department had gone to her, it would have increased resistance within the SPD to an alliance with the CDU.

Finally, urban development is likely to be the new field of work for SPD leader Franziska Giffey. Although it seems rather hopeless that she will ultimately be able to shine with the large numbers of successes here, building and housing are already her core topics, as the still-governing mayor. The familiarization period in the new office should largely be omitted for them, which is not unimportant given that there are only three and a half years left in government.

Trust came from negotiation

If the SPD members agree to the coalition agreement, there would be a government coalition that would at least not have the worst starting conditions: the main players get along well with each other. The harmony not only outlasted the coalition negotiations, but a relationship of trust was created in the first place.

SPD leader Giffey spoke of humility in the face of the election results. In fact, this coalition is also an alliance of humiliation for the Social Democrats – and for Giffey personally. She has to get out of the Rotes Rathaus and is no longer number one.

CDU sees a “residual risk”

Can Giffey also number two, some wonder. Will she dutifully line up behind a Governing Mayor Wegner? The appearances after the coalition negotiations and at the presentation of the coalition agreement suggest it. But “a residual risk remains,” says a Christian Democrat who negotiated in the top group.

But that doesn’t spoil the good mood on the CDU side. And also not from the knowledge that the SPD had announced before the start of the negotiations that it wanted to be the strongest force again in the 2026 election. According to the CDU, the Social Democrats only wanted to “hibernate” in the black-red coalition. In the hope that it will be political spring again for them afterwards.