Actually, the past few days should give the CDU new impetus. On Friday afternoon they met in Berlin for a small party conference, on Saturday they discussed their basic program with well-informed guests at a large convention. The party wanted to get expertise and impulses from outside and shine with substantive debates. But in the end almost everything in public perception was focused on Friedrich Merz. Is his course right? And: Would the CDU leader also be the right candidate for chancellor?
Although the traffic light coalition seems to be doing its utmost to scare voters away, the CDU’s poll numbers are stagnating at just under 30 percent – the AfD’s, on the other hand, have risen enormously. And despite the poor performance of Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner and Robert Habeck, Merz also ranks behind the three coalition partners in the latest political barometer. All of that would be uncomfortable enough for Merz. But then, of all things, the CDU Prime Ministers Daniel Günther and Hendrik Wüst spoke up on the party conference and convention weekend in a way that could not only be understood as criticism of Merz’s course, but probably should. The picture on sunday summarized all this in the headline: “Is Merz still the right alternative for Germany?”
The CDU had temporarily slipped to below 20 percent
Merz himself was smart enough not to react publicly to this debate at the weekend and thereby increase it. But internally he has long since made it clear that he does not see himself and his achievements sufficiently appreciated. The CDU leader likes to refer to the state of the party before his election to the top. The collapse of the Union in the federal election to 24.1 percent was not the low point. In the polls that followed, the CDU and CSU slipped even further, in some surveys even below the 20 percent mark. At the time, the CDU was disoriented and also without a leader because of Armin Laschet’s announcement of his withdrawal. There was a power struggle for the presidency not only in the party, but also in the Union faction. The CDU and CSU were also at odds. And the traffic light was still seen as a modern, fresh coalition of progress.
In view of this starting position, the CDU is in a good position, says Merz. The question of power has been clarified in the party and parliamentary group. There is no longer any dispute between the CDU and CSU. The CDU has increased significantly in the polls compared to the federal elections, the Union is constantly almost ten percentage points ahead of the Chancellor Party SPD. The CDU won the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Schleswig-Holstein and Berlin – and also showed that it is not doing as badly as most of the other Christian Democratic parties in Europe. This is how Merz sees the situation.
At the small party conference, the CDU leader admitted: “Of course it’s also clear: we could still grow.” But just to add: “We’ve been in first place among the German parties for more than a year – we can’t expect others to praise us if we don’t do it ourselves.”
Do the reservations of many citizens of the party apply – or Merz?
The question remains why the CDU does not benefit from the losses of the traffic light parties. Some say that this is also due to the reservations of many citizens and especially citizens towards Merz. The CDU leader, on the other hand, is of the opinion that there is still a kind of trust barrier among some of the citizens towards the CDU – that many of the party still do not accept after 16 years of government, that they would do better now than they did then.
Merz is hoping that the CDU will find it easier to get their positions across with every additional month away from their reign. Merz has refrained from sharp criticism of the former chancellor lately. There are still many Merkelians in the party. And the Union faction has a large number of members of parliament who have supported Merkel’s policies in previous legislative periods – and who could see attacks on Merkel as attacks on themselves. So Merz leaves it with indirect messages, such as the almost demonstrative refusal to congratulate him on being awarded the highest German Order of Merit.
How narrow the line is that Merz is walking was shown particularly clearly in a passage of his speech at the small party conference. “Frustration and fear of the future” would grow among the population, said Merz. The vast majority of respondents have the feeling that politics is distancing itself from society. These are symptoms of “a tangible crisis in our democracy”. And Merz made it clear what he believes is the reason: “The train is no longer on time, the roads are congested, medical care, especially in rural areas, is getting worse and worse, the absence of lessons in many schools, a lack of daycare places, sharply rising costs in care, digitization in one of the last places in Europe – and above all a paralyzing and ever-expanding bureaucracy.”
Only every fourth citizen thinks the Union would govern better
Merz may be right with this inventory. But it’s not just a description of Germany after a year and a half of the traffic light coalition or after 21 years of SPD government in the last quarter of a century. But it is also a description of Germany after 16 years of Angela Merkel. As long as the CDU cannot credibly offer its own solutions to all the problems, it will not score with the problem description. Incidentally, this is also shown by the latest political barometer by the Wahlen research group. For twelve years, no federal government has been rated as badly as the traffic light coalition is now. Nevertheless, only 26 percent of respondents say that the Union parties would govern better.
How can the CDU change that? That is still unclear after this weekend. Daniel Günther has it Süddeutsche Zeitung said: “Course in the middle, stay linguistically clean, don’t lead debates about gender and other trivial things – just don’t tell people shit.” Populist banging isn’t going to do anything, it’s helping the AfD.
Merz sounded different at the weekend. He warned against not addressing sensitive issues for fear of a comparison with the AfD. “We also have to be able to address problems – sometimes with formulations that not everyone likes,” said Merz. That was “not immediately to the right”, “racist” or “AfD-speak”. Talking to the people is populism, but watching the people in the mouth is democracy. Merz was very clear that there would never be any cooperation with the AfD in the European Parliament, the Bundestag or the state parliaments.