North Rhine-Westphalia is experiencing an experiment: for the first time, the CDU and the Greens, the two winners of last Sunday’s election, want to venture into a joint coalition in Düsseldorf. A completely new color combination, because until now politics between the Rhine and Weser has been strictly camp-based: either red-green or black-yellow has ruled for almost three decades.
On Wednesday, the negotiators from the CDU and the Greens met to sow the seeds for what Jan Philipp Thomeczek calls “the avocado coalition” with a smile: the ripe fruit is black on the outside and green on the inside – at least the popular avocado variety from the US breeder Rudolph Hass. Thomeczek is project manager at the University of Münster’s NRW election compass. For the compass, political scientists not only measured the positions of the parties on the basis of 30 theses. Thanks to a voluntary “data donation” from more than a thousand CDU and Greens voters, you also know what concrete political solutions the supporters of the two parties expected from a future government before they cast their vote.
The black-green “cloud of voters” shows that the respondents lean more towards the center than the parties themselves. In the political coordinate system, the green program is more to the left (pro-redistribution) and – unsurprisingly – high up (progressive-ecological). The CDU party signet is meanwhile further to the right (pro-responsibility) and below (conservative). Most CDU-related users of the election compass see themselves in a similar way. Meanwhile, there is more overlapping of green and black voters along the left-right axis, which means that when it comes to free childcare or social housing, both camps are closer than when it comes to gender asterisks or the voting age.
From the voters’ point of view, where can bridges be built – and where are the old, deep rifts lurking? The reactions of the election compass users to individual theses provide clues (graphic on the right). Surprisingly, CDU voters seem to be willing to compromise when it comes to expanding renewable energies: almost half of the self-confessed CDU supporters (44 percent) are in favor of saying goodbye to the previous minimum distance rule for wind turbines (1000 meters away from any residential development). The CDU itself has so far rejected this. The Greens and their voters, on the other hand, see this black and yellow norm as a massive obstacle to an energy transition.
Is there a black-green voter consensus shining through? Norbert Kersting, professor of political science at the University of Münster, interprets the fresh wind among CDU friends as a result of the Ukraine conflict. “Putin’s war seems to open up many citizens to building more wind turbines or solar cells,” he says. However, Kersting warns that a number of regular voters in CDU strongholds such as Münster or Sauerland remain skeptical: “And that’s where the rotors would be.” Politically more feasible would probably be a black-green law that prescribes photovoltaic systems on new buildings in NRW. The majority of voters like that, whether for the CDU (60 percent) or the Greens (88).
Green voters are sometimes more conservative than their party
Surprisingly, issues of immigration policy and internal security could also serve as “bridgeheads” for an avocado consensus. Something is moving in the green camp. After all, 58 percent of all self-declared green users of the election compass agree with the thesis that delinquent foreigners should “be able to be deported more easily.” Your party, however, strictly rejects it. Christian Democrats are clearly in favor, both in the program and in the electorate (92 percent). If it were up to the citizens, there would be little change in the course of the previous government on this point.
A tendency towards consensus can also be seen when it comes to arming the NRW police: The Greens have repeatedly criticized the use of “Tasers” – but 44 percent of their voters support the use of stun guns (29 percent reject this). CDU Interior Minister Herbert Reul introduced the weapon at the insistence of his party, and 78 percent of CDU voters think this is the right thing to do.
But the two Düsseldorf would-be coalition partners also expect conflicts. Their voters give answers to a number of questions that reflect the old camp thinking. According to Norbert Kersting, one of these “toxic issues” is the green demand to decree “Tempo 30” as the standard speed for all inner cities. About three out of four Green voters (72 percent) demand this, but two-thirds of all CDU supporters do not want to hit the brakes so sharply. A look at the party programs reveals a similar picture of opinion: the CDU does not agree, the Greens all the more resolutely.
The Greens and Christian Democrats are now united by a kind of “basic civil consensus.” This is also confirmed by data from the election compass: 83 percent of CDU supporters and 82 percent of Greens sympathizers demand that the country should not incur any debt and “strive for a balanced budget”.
The question of rent then separates the spirits again
But when it comes to more specific questions, the similarities quickly end. The black and yellow government had recently drastically reduced the number of NRW cities in which a “rent brake” protects low-income citizens. The Greens want to change that and their voters too: 65 percent of supporters reject the sentence that a private landlord should “be allowed to set the amount of the rent themselves.” The opinion of the CDU is quite different: the majority of voters agree, while their party is more neutral.
Finally, poison for the coalition negotiations is also a generational conflict – the voting age. The CDU, which owed its victory on Sunday mainly to voters over 60, wants to leave the minimum voting age at 18. Three-fourths of their followers agree. The Greens and 68 percent of their voters, on the other hand, demand more power for young people and voting rights from the age of 16. Preferably at the next state election in 2027.