by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – Europe’s major stock markets are expected to open on Monday on a cautious note and with low trading volumes due to the May 8 celebrations and in the absence of major statistics or significant earnings results. businesses.
Futures contracts on indices suggest an increase of 0.1% for the CAC 40 in Paris and 0.03% for the Dax in Frankfurt. The London Stock Exchange is closed until Tuesday due to the coronation festivities of Charles III.
The “futures” on Wall Street show a decline of 0.05% for the Dow Jones and the Standard & Poor’s 500, while the Nasdaq could grab 0.02%.
The day’s session will be marked by German industrial production in March and the Sentix index measuring the confidence of investors in the euro zone for the month of May. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) bank lending survey will also be one to watch as the sector remains under stress with the rapid rise in interest rates.
After the publication on Friday of the monthly report on US employment, which showed 253,000 non-agricultural job creations last month against 180,000 expected by the Reuters consensus, the market is mainly awaiting inflation figures in the United States on Wednesday. This data is important as the jobs report showed that wage growth has accelerated, which could prompt the Fed to maintain a tight monetary policy after raising its main interest rate by 25 points last week. basis, bringing the fed funds target to 5%-5.25%.
In the euro zone, where the European Central Bank (ECB) also raised the cost of credit by 25 basis points last week, investors will take note on Wednesday of the final inflation figures for April in Germany, the bloc’s largest economy. During the weekend, Klaas Knot, member of the ECB, estimated that further rate hikes would be necessary to contain inflation.
The Bank of England (BoE), for its part, is holding its monetary policy meeting on Thursday and should, like the Fed and the ECB, raise the cost of money by a quarter of a point.
AT WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended higher on Friday with Apple, while the resilience of the labor market in the United States reassured.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.65%, or 546.64 points, to 33,674.38 points.
The broader S&P-500 gained 75.03 points, or 1.85%, to 4,136.25 points.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced for its part by 269.02 points (+ 2.25%) to 12,235.41 points.
Apple jumped 4.7% after its quarterly results and the market was relieved by the employment figures, the eleven sector indices of the S&P 500 all having finished higher.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index fell 0.6% to 28,982.11 points and the wider Topix fell 0.16% to 2,072.2 points as the close approached.
Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) March 9-10 monetary policy meeting, released on Monday, show several members of the Board of Governors saying the institution should be vigilant about the risk of a stronger than expected acceleration in inflation.
Japan’s PMI of services activity, calculated by Jibun Bank, stood at 55.4 in April on the back of a sharp increase in consumer spending, final results showed on Monday. It came out at 54.9 in the “flash” version and 55.0 in March.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite gained 1.6% and the CSI 300 gained 0.95%.
The MSCI index comprising stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) rose by 0.7%.
RATE
US ten-year and two-year bond yields are stable at 3.4313% and 3.9326% respectively after climbing about nine basis points and 20 points on Friday following the release of the US jobs report. UNITED STATES.
The risk of a US default doesn’t help either, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen again warning Congress on Sunday of a “constitutional crisis”, with consequences for the markets. financial and interest rates, if it does not affect the debt ceiling.
CHANGES
The dollar, which suffered a second consecutive weekly loss last week with a decline of 0.4%, lost 0.19% on Monday against a basket of reference currencies pending the publication of the survey of the Fed on bank loans.
The Japanese currency is trading at 134.76 yen per dollar, not benefiting from the weakness of the greenback, the BoJ being the only major central bank in developed countries not to have tightened its monetary policy.
The euro, up 0.19%, trades at $1.1039, not far from its recent high at 1.1096.
OIL
The oil market is benefiting from the ebb of fears of a recession: Brent gained 0.54% to 75.71 dollars a barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.57% to 71.75 dollars.
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Laetitia Volga)