Spain is looking forward to the regional elections in Catalonia with great excitement. The result could have serious consequences for Prime Minister Sánchez’s government. A person who fled into exile years ago is already dreaming of returning.
It’s a curiosity in the Catalan election campaign: coaches with the portrait of Carles Puigdemont are heading for the French Pyrenees town of Argelès-sur-Mer. Because the separatist leader is still threatened with arrest in Spain, he has his followers brought to him in exile in France.
There is 69-year-old Roser, who is firmly convinced that Puigdemont is the only one who can bring independence to Catalonia. Later, in a rented event hall behind the border, they sing the anthem of Catalonia and shout: “President, President!”
Puigdemont’s dream of returning
Puigdemont packs a lot of pathos and defiance into his campaign speeches. At that time, as regional president, they wanted to put him in prison, says the 61-year-old, referring to the government in Madrid. Now he is here, among his supporters, a few weeks before his return – “without having to apologize to a Spanish judge.”
The then conservative central government took action against him in 2017 as a key mastermind behind the failed coup attempt in October of the same year. Puigdemont, then head of the Catalan government, had held a controversial and illegal referendum on the future of the region and then declared Catalonia’s independence.
The Spanish justice system put Puigdemont on a wanted list. The accusation was, among other things, rebellion against the state. Puigdemont fled into exile in Belgium, where he enjoyed immunity for a long time as a member of the EU Parliament.
A national arrest warrant against him is still in force until the controversial amnesty law of the left-wing government of Pedro Sánchez is finally passed.
Less support for independence
Pollsters see Puigdemont’s Junts per Catalunya party as the second strongest force. The issue of independence is still important for many Catalans, although not a priority. The number of supporters of a separate Catalan state has been declining for years. Many Catalans seem tired of the debates and definitely do not want to go back to the crisis years around 2017.
Voters talk about other issues that are more important to them. They worry about rising prices, the housing shortage in the cities as well as the ongoing drought and associated economic questions – such as how much tourism Catalonia can and wants to afford in the future. Migration is also one of the topics in the election campaign.
Socialists lead – and could fail
In Sunday’s election, all pollsters see the Socialists as the strongest force. Your top candidate Salvador Illa recently presented himself as non-ideological and pragmatic in the election campaign. He repeatedly promises in interviews and at campaign events that he is running to lead Catalonia into a new era.
Whether he will get the chance, however, is an open question and depends on whether any of the separatist parties actually want to form a coalition with the socialists. Illa herself fears that, as in the past, there could be a blockade in the newly elected parliament in Barcelona.
That would be the case if the parties that continue to advocate for Catalonia’s independence were to form their own governing majority. In addition to Puigdemont’s Junts party, it also depends on how the more moderate independence supporters of Esquerra Republicana will perform.
The Sánchez problem
Such alliance questions take up a lot of space in election campaign debates and interviews. The coalition question is also of great interest to Spain’s Prime Minister Sánchez. Because in the last congressional elections in the summer of 2023, his left-wing alliance missed a majority.
Sánchez’s minority government is dependent on the support of the separatist parties, emphasizes political scientist Pablo Simón from the Carlos III University in Madrid. “Depending on the outcome of the election, they could also withdraw their support for Sánchez. Without them, the current Spanish government would no longer be able to pass any laws.”
Spain’s minority government is open to blackmail. The independence supporters in Catalonia could take advantage of this in the upcoming coalition negotiations. In any case, Puigdemont announced early on that he was running to become head of government again. In the event of an election defeat, he promised that he would withdraw.