It is a consequence of the powertrain turnaround that has received little attention: where does the money for building and maintaining roads come from if all cars are electric? Because the infrastructure in Germany is currently financed primarily through energy taxes, i.e. taxes on petrol and diesel. The Berlin-based research institute Agora Verkehrswende assumes that in 2030 the mineral oil tax revenue from passenger cars will fall by almost half compared to 2020, which corresponds to a minus of around 13 billion euros a year; the sales tax that is no longer applicable is not even taken into account. Even if the revenue from the electricity tax increases, there will still be a huge revenue gap.
Agora, together with the Swiss research institute Infra, has now worked out a possible solution that has so far only been discussed in outlines: A distance-related car toll on all roads is intended to compensate for the tax loss and at the same time accelerate the traffic turnaround, i.e. the switch from cars to more sustainable means of transport . According to the researchers, a car toll could generate revenue of around 33 billion euros in 2030 Süddeutsche Zeitung was available in advance. The researchers assume an average price per kilometer of 5.4 cents.
Why exactly this amount now? Agora relies on the official road cost report from the federal government: 2.6 cents in infrastructure costs, therefore, driving a car on trunk roads. With this price, the toll should also start in 2025, Agora demands. If you now add the official figures that the government uses for the consequences of air pollution, noise and nature, you get 5.4 cents. It follows that the amount does not only cover the current infrastructure costs. According to Agora, a good half of the money can be used “for the common good” for public transport, infrastructure for pedestrians and cyclists and noise protection.
The principle behind it: “Those who drive more and thus use the roads more and impose costs on the general public, also pay more,” says Agora director Christian Hochfeld. That is fair, strengthens climate protection and due to the necessary technology, a car toll could even develop “into a digitization and modernization project with an international role model”.
In fact, there is no system anywhere else in the world that Agora envisions: All routes are to be measured using satellite positioning and a mobile phone app and then billed by private service providers for the state. Setting up the system would cost 2.5 billion euros once – and then around 700 million euros a year for operation. The type of billing, but also the objective of the user fee, clearly distinguishes the toll model now presented from the car toll that the black-red federal government wanted to introduce a few years ago. The model at the time failed at the European Court of Justice because it discriminated against drivers from abroad.
Smaller cars could get away cheaper than big ones
With the Agora model, every user should pay, and instead of the origin, there should be other adjustment screws that reduce or increase the price: the vehicle weight should be considered in order to favor smaller vehicles and because heavy vehicles take up more of the roads. According to Agora, a differentiation according to pollutant emissions should also be examined, as well as a staggering according to time: Those who drive in the rush hour pay more. Finally, the toll system could allow cities better traffic control. According to Agora, municipalities should be able to decide for themselves whether they should charge an additional anti-congestion fee, 40 cents per kilometer are included in the concept, and the municipality should invest the revenue in public transport and cycle paths.
One effect of all this: probably less traffic. Based on experiences with tolls in Scandinavia or London, for example, the researchers assume that traffic will decrease by three percent if the so-called variable costs for driving a car increase by ten percent. At a price per kilometer of 5.4 cents, the cost of a petrol engine should increase by around a third.
But what is fair to the citizens is what is good for the environment – or would you mainly see high earners on the street thanks to the toll? Agora director Hochfeld refers to digitization. As a result, politicians have “all options, much more just and targeted” than before: the software can be used to reduce the burden on those on lower incomes or people who live in areas with poor public transport. And, according to Hochfeld, a toll should also be seen from a social point of view as just one pillar of a comprehensive restructuring of transport policy: It is also necessary, for example, to concentrate vehicle tax on first registrations, which would shift the tax burden towards the first-time buyers who are usually wealthier.